Ranking BYU's Most Difficult Games in 2020

BYU added two games to the 2020 schedule yesterday afternoon. As things currently stand, BYU has eight games on the schedule:

@Navy - 9/7

@Army - 9/19

Troy - 9/26

UTSA - 10/10

Houston - 10/16

Texas State - 10/24

Western Kentucky - 10/31

North Alabama - 11/21

BYU hopes to get at least 10 games on the schedule and will announce "additional games as they are finalized." 

Today, let's rank BYU's eight games from least difficult to most difficult. 

8. North Alabama

North Alabama is the only FCS program on BYU's 2020 slate. Nothing is guaranteed in sports, but the Cougars should have no problem handling the Lions in November. ESPN FPI gives BYU better than a 99% to win that game.

7. Texas State

Texas State went 3-9 in 2019. They scored 18.4 points per game which ranked 121st in the FBS. They allowed 32.6 points per game which ranked 107th in the FBS. In my eyes, Texas State is the worst FBS team on BYU's schedule.

6. UTSA

If Texas State is the worst FBS team on BYU's schedule, UTSA is not far behind. Last year, UTSA went 4-8 with wins over Rice, UTEP, Incarnate Word, and Old Dominion. On offense, they averaged 20 points per game. On defense, they allowed 34 points per game. 

5. Troy

Troy scored 34 points per game last year. However, they struggled to consistently score against better competition. Here were their scoring outputs last season:

vs Campell: 43

vs Southern Miss: 42

@ Akron: 35

vs Arkansas State: 43

@ Missouri: 10

vs South Alabama: 37

@ Georgia State: 33

@ Coastal Carolina: 35

vs Georgia Southern: 49

@ Texas State:@ 63

@ Louisiana: 3

vs Appalachian State: 13

The Troy defense struggled in 2019 - they allowed 35 points per game. The Trojans return 48% of their production on offense and 71% of their production on defense.

ESPN FPI gives BYU a 75% chance to win this game.

4. Western Kentucky

Western Kentucky is a really interesting team. Similar to BYU, Western Kentucky experienced ups and downs in 2019. Their best win was a blowout victory at Arkansas. Their worst loss came during the first week of the season against FCS Central Arkansas. The Hilltoppers earned an invitation to the First Responder Bowl where they beat Western Michigan 23-20.

Western Kentucky put together a top-25 defense in 2019. They allowed only 336 yards per game which ranked 24th in the country.

The Hilltoppers bring back 53% of their production on offense. Most notably, they bring back 90% of their production on defense. I expect Western Kentucky to field a very talented defense in 2020.

3. Army

Army went 5-8 in 2019. They scored 28.5 points per game which ranked 68th in the country. They allowed 23 points per game on defense which ranked 41st in the country.

Their most impressive performance of the season might have been a losing effort to #7 Michigan. The Black Knights took Michigan to overtime before losing by a field goal. In general, Army was better in 2019 than their win-loss record - they lost four games by seven points or less. 

2. Houston

Houston is coming off a 4-8 season. Houston is another team that was better than their 2019 record. Their losses came at the hands of Oklahoma, Washington State, Tulane, Cincinnati, SMU, UCF, Memphis, and Navy. Of the eight losses, six of their opponents were ranked at the time. Houston is a talented team and ESPN FPI gives BYU a 46% chance to win.

1. Navy

Navy had a fantastic season in 2019. In 2020, they will need to replace Malcom Perry who ran for over 2,000 yards last season. The Midshipmen will create a lot of challenges for BYU who struggled to stop the run in 2019. ESPN FPI currently gives BYU a 28% chance to beat Navy on Labor Day. Given Navy's lost production at QB, that number feels a little low.

BYU kicks off at Navy in 11 days. Stay tuned for more content about Navy this week. I had a chance to sit down with a Navy insider to discuss the 2020 version of the Midshipment - those videos will be released soon.

Rumors have been swirling for a few weeks that UCF could be added to BYU's 2020 schedule. If UCF is added, they immediately become the greatest challenge on the Cougars' 2020 slate.