WASHINGTON — On a steamy August day along the Chinese coast, Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr. stepped off a minibus at a seaside compound for a series of unusual meetings with China’s Communist Party leaders.
華盛頓——在一個8月的悶熱日子裡,在位於中國海岸線的一處海濱大院,參議員小約瑟夫·R.拜登(Joseph R. Biden Jr.)從一輛小巴走下,與中國共產黨領導人展開了一系列不同尋常的會晤。
At a lunch banquet, Mr. Biden and three other senators argued with Chinese officials about what the O.J. Simpson trial had revealed about the integrity of the U.S. legal system. When the senators met afterward with the party secretary, Jiang Zemin, they sparred over that and other thorny issues: missile technology proliferation, human rights and Taiwan.
在一次午宴上,拜登和其他三名參議員與中國官員就辛普森案對美國法律體系完整性的影響發生了爭論。當參議員隨後與中共總書記江澤民會面時,他們就這一問題和其他棘手問題繼續展開辯論——導彈技術擴散、人權和台灣。
But Mr. Biden, leading his first overseas trip as the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, was also there in Beidaihe in 2001 to help usher in an important era in America’s relationship with China — the building of a commercial link that would allow the Communist nation entry into the World Trade Organization.
但拜登也曾在2001年的北戴河幫助美中關係開創一個重要時代——與中國建立商業聯繫,使這個共產主義國家得以加入世貿組織。那是他作為美國參議院外交關係委員會(Senate Foreign Relations Committee)主席,首次率團前往海外。
“The United States welcomes the emergence of a prosperous, integrated China on the global stage, because we expect this is going to be a China that plays by the rules,” Mr. Biden told Mr. Jiang, recalled Frank Jannuzi, the Senate aide who organized the trip and took notes at Mr. Biden’s side.
「美國歡迎一個繁榮、一體化的中國在全球舞台上崛起,因為我們期待這將會是一個遵守規則的中國,」據組織此次系行程並在拜登身邊擔任記錄的參議員助手弗蘭克·詹努齊(Frank Jannuzi)回憶,拜登對江澤民這樣說道。
廣告
The senator traveled days later to a dirt-road village near the Great Wall. Seven thousand miles from Delaware, his adopted home state, Mr. Biden glad-handed bemused locals like a candidate, even taking holy communion from a Roman Catholic priest. He returned to Washington seeing more promise than peril, offering reporters the same message he had delivered to Chinese leaders: The United States welcomed China’s emergence “as a great power, because great powers adhere to international norms in the areas of nonproliferation, human rights and trade.”
幾天後,這位參議員前往長城附近,參訪一個只有土路的村莊。在距離他的家鄉特拉華州7000英里的地方,拜登像一名候選人一樣高興地與一臉困惑的當地人打招呼,甚至還從一個羅馬天主教牧師那裡領取了聖餐。回到華盛頓之後,他看到了更多的希望,而不是危險。他向記者提供了他曾向中國領導人傳遞的相同信息:美國歡迎中國「作為一個大國」崛起,「因為大國要在不擴散、人權和貿易領域遵守國際準則」。
Two decades later, China has emerged as a great power — and, in the eyes of many Americans, a dangerous rival. Republicans and Democrats say it has exploited the global integration that Mr. Biden and many other officials supported.
20年後,中國已經成為了一個大國——並且,在許多美國人眼中,還是一個危險的對手。共和黨人和民主黨人都說,它利用了拜登和許多官員支持的全球一體化。
The 2020 election has been partly defined by what much of Washington sees as a kind of new Cold War. And as Mr. Biden faces fierce campaign attacks from President Trump, his language on China points to a drastic shift in thinking.
2020年大選一定程度上被華盛頓許多人眼裡的一種「新冷戰」所定義。隨著拜登在競選中面臨川普總統的猛烈攻擊,他對中國的言論顯示出他的思維發生了劇烈轉變。
Mr. Biden calls Xi Jinping, the authoritarian Chinese leader, a “thug.” He has threatened, if elected, to impose “swift economic sanctions” if China tries to silence American citizens and companies. “The United States does need to get tough on China,” he wrote this winter in an essay in Foreign Affairs. Mr. Biden now sees the country as a top strategic challenge, according to interviews with more than a dozen of his advisers and foreign policy associates, and his own words.
拜登將中國的威權領導人習近平稱為「暴徒」。他還威脅,如果當選,假使中國試圖壓制美國公民和企業,將「迅速實施經濟制裁」。「美國確實需要對中國採取強硬手段,」今冬他在《外交事務》(Foreign Affairs)上發表的一篇文章中寫道。根據對他的十餘名顧問以及外交政策助手的採訪,還有拜登自己的說法,拜登如今視中國為一個首要戰略挑戰。
2001年,拜登訪問燕子口村,與7歲的高山(音)握手。
2001年,拜登訪問燕子口村,與7歲的高山(音)握手。 Pool photo by Greg Baker
Mr. Biden’s 20-year road from wary optimism to condemnation — while still straining for some cooperation — is emblematic of the arc of U.S.-China relations, which have deteriorated to an unstable, potentially explosive state. But as Mr. Trump denounces the Washington establishment’s failures on China, Mr. Biden, an avatar of that establishment, is not recanting his past enthusiasm for engagement.
從謹慎樂觀到譴責中國,但又同時努力尋求合作,拜登的20年是中美關係弧線的象徵。現在,中美關係已經惡化到一個不穩定的、存在爆炸可能的狀態。但在川普譴責華盛頓建制派在中國問題上的失敗之際,作為建制派化身的拜登並沒有放棄他過去對接觸政策的熱情。
In a Foreign Affairs essay in 2018, two former Obama administration officials who advise Mr. Biden, Kurt M. Campbell and Ely Ratner, said both Democratic and Republican administrations had been guilty of fundamental policy missteps on China.
在2018年發表於《外交事務》的一篇文章中,為拜登提供諮詢的兩名前歐巴馬政府官員庫爾特·M·坎貝爾(Kurt M. Campbell)和埃利·拉特納(Ely Ratner)表示,民主黨和共和黨政府都在對華政策上犯下了根本性的錯誤。
廣告
“Across the ideological spectrum, we in the U.S. foreign policy community have remained deeply invested in expectations about China — about its approach to economics, domestic politics, security and global order — even as evidence against them has accumulated,” they wrote. “The policies built on such expectations have failed to change China in the ways we intended or hoped.”
「不管是意識型態光譜上的哪一派,我們美國外交政策界一直對中國如何處理經濟、國內政治、安全和全球秩序等方面寄予很高的期待,儘管反對這種政策的理由在日漸增多,」他們寫道。「建立在這種期待基礎上的政策,未能以我們打算或希望的方式改變中國。」
While refraining from admitting fault in his previous views, Mr. Biden speaks these days not of transforming China but of restoring the United States, according to his policy statements and interviews with his aides. They say the United States must regain its role as a leader of liberal values and economic innovation, and that will give Washington the standing to rally like-minded nations to constrain China.
拜登的政策聲明和對他助手的採訪顯示,儘管拜登不願承認自己之前觀點的錯誤,但他最近談到的並不是改造中國,而是恢復美國。他們說,美國必須重新扮演自由價值觀和經濟創新領袖的角色,這將使華盛頓有資格團結志同道合的國家來限制中國。
Among Mr. Biden’s priorities are rebuilding alliances and reasserting a global defense of democracy, which Mr. Trump has eroded, they say. Mr. Biden’s “Build Back Better” economic plan promotes investments in U.S. industries and research, partly to compete with China. And he sees some areas where Washington and Beijing can cooperate: climate change, health security and nonproliferation.
他們說,拜登的首要任務是重建聯盟,在全球重新捍衛民主,而川普已經削弱了民主。拜登的「重建更好」經濟計劃倡導對美國工業和研究的投資,部分目的是為了與中國競爭。他還認為華盛頓和北京可以在一些領域進行合作,比如氣候變化、衛生安全和防止核擴散。
But relations are at their lowest point since the re-establishment of formal ties in 1979. Chinese officials have accelerated their authoritarian policies, and Beijing’s assertions of power in Hong Kong, the South China Sea and elsewhere are seen in Washington as open defiance.
但兩國關係目前處於1979年恢復外交關係以來的最低點。中國官員加快了他們威權政策的實施,北京在香港、南海和其他地方的權力主張被華盛頓視為公開的挑釁。
While Trump administration hawks aim to set the two nations on a long-term course of confrontation, Mr. Trump himself vacillates wildly on China. He halted his damaging trade war this year, called Mr. Xi “a very, very good friend” and expressed “much respect!” on Twitter. But Mr. Trump now talks angrily of the “China virus,” referring to the coronavirus outbreak.
儘管川普政府的鷹派人士打算讓兩國走上長期對抗的道路,但川普本人在中國問題上卻搖擺不定。今年他停止破壞性的貿易戰爭,把習近平稱為「一個非常、非常好的朋友」,並在Twitter上表示「很尊重!」。而川普現在又憤怒地談到「中國病毒」,用這個詞指代冠狀病毒疫情。
Mr. Biden calls for a steadier approach, but he has no easy answers for how two superpowers with intertwined economies can deal with their ideological differences. In an interview in May with The New York Times, he said he met with Mr. Xi repeatedly in 2011 and 2012 to try to figure out whether it was possible to have “a competitive relationship with China without it being a bellicose relationship, without it being a relationship based on force.”
拜登則呼籲採取更穩定的方式,但對於兩個經濟相互交織的超級大國如何處理意識型態差異,他沒有簡單的答案。在5月的一次《紐約時報》採訪中,他說,他在2011年和2012年多次會見習近平,試圖看清是否有可能和中國建立「一種競爭性的關係,同時避免形成爭鬥的、以武力為基礎的關係」。
To Change China
改變中國
1999年,拜登在國會大廈的台階上向一群高中生发表了一場關於核戰爭和中國間諜活動的激情演講。
1999年,拜登在國會大廈的台階上向一群高中生发表了一場關於核戰爭和中國間諜活動的激情演講。 Stephen Crowley/The New York Times
Mr. Biden says he has had a “long interest in the evolving nature of the Chinese Communist Party” from his first visit to the country “as a kid in the Senate” in April 1979, as part of the first U.S. congressional delegation to the country since China’s Communist revolution in 1949. He met with the country’s leader, Deng Xiaoping, who was then beginning to transform China’s command economy with market reforms.
1979年4月,美國派出中國共產黨1949年當政以來第一個國會代表團,拜登作為其中一員第一次拜訪中國,當時他還是個「初入參議院的愣頭青」。他說,從那以後,他「對中國共產黨不斷發展的本質產生了長期的興趣」。他見到了中國領導人鄧小平,鄧小平當時正在開啟對中國指令性經濟的市場改革。
Hosting Chinese officials as the vice president in May 2011, Mr. Biden recalled that trip fondly. While acknowledging a “debate” on the question, he said he “believed then what I believe now: that a rising China is a positive, positive development, not only for China but for America and the world writ large.”
2011年5月,拜登作為副總統接待中國官員時,愉快地回憶起那次訪問。儘管承認爭論的存在,但他說自己「現在依然秉持當時的信念:一個崛起的中國,不僅對中國來說,而且對於美國乃至世界來說,都是一個積極又積極的發展」。
廣告
But as the country boomed over the decades, Mr. Biden was also a frequent critic, especially on human rights.
然而,隨著幾十年來中國不斷繁榮,拜登也頻繁地發出批評,尤其針對人權問題。
Outraged by the 1989 crackdown against protesters around Tiananmen Square, he introduced legislation to create a federally funded news media network to promote democratic values within the country. Mr. Biden realized China was a “brutal system,” said James P. Rubin, a Senate Foreign Relations Committee aide who later served as a State Department spokesman. The station went online in 1996 as Radio Free Asia and operates to this day.
1989年,天安門廣場周圍的示威者遭到鎮壓,這激怒了拜登,他提出立法,創建了一個聯邦政府資助的媒體網路,在中國宣傳民主價值觀。拜登意識到中國是一個「殘酷的體制」,後來一度任國務院發言人的參議院外交關係委員會助手詹姆斯·P·魯賓(James P. Rubin)說。這個媒體即自由亞洲電台(Radio Free Asia),在1996年推出並運作至今。
Mr. Biden also saw limits to what the United States could realistically demand. In 1991, as Congress debated granting China favored-nation trading status, he acknowledged the country had a “reprehensible” record on human rights and “unfair trade practices.” But he argued that the top priority for the United States was China’s sale of missiles to Iran and Syria, which could threaten Israel.
在美國能夠提出的實際要求方面,拜登也看到了局限性。1991年,當參議院討論是否取消中國的貿易最惠國待遇時,他承認該國在人權和「不公平貿易行為」方面的記錄「應受指責」。但是他主張,美國的首要問題是中國向伊朗和敘利亞出售導彈,這威脅到以色列。
By the end of the decade, Republicans and a growing number of moderate Democrats were extolling the benefits of freer trade with China. When the Senate debated in September 2000 whether to end 20 years of annual reviews of China’s status and permanently normalize trade, paving the way for the country’s entry into the World Trade Organization, Mr. Biden was a strong supporter.
到90年代末,共和黨以及越來越多的溫和派民主黨人都在宣揚對中國加大自由貿易的好處。2000年9月,當參議院討論是否結束20年來對中國最惠顧待遇的的年度審查、實現永久性正常貿易,為該國加入世界貿易組織鋪平道路時,拜登是堅定的支持者。
Like many others in Congress, he argued that China’s global integration might “influence the structure of their internal social, economic and political systems.” Permanently normalized trade, he said on the Senate floor, “continues a process of careful engagement designed to encourage China’s development as a productive, responsible member of the world community.” Mr. Biden also predicted that Delaware’s chemical and poultry industries would benefit, as well as General Motors and Chrysler, both of which operated major plants in the state.
與其他很多參議院成員一樣,他認為中國融入全球可能「對其內部社會、經濟和政治體系產生影響」。他在參議院發言中表示,永久性正常貿易是「繼續推進謹慎接觸的過程,旨在鼓勵中國發展成為國際社戶富有成效、負責任的成員」。拜登還預測,特拉華州的化工和家禽業將從中受益,另外還有通用汽車和克萊斯勒,這兩家公司都在特拉華州設有大型廠區。
On Sept. 19, 2000, the Senate approved the measure, 83 to 15. As in the House, much of the modest opposition centered on China’s record on human rights and workers’ rights.
2000年9月19日,參議院以83票對15票通過了決議。與眾議院一樣,多數溫和的反對意見都集中在中國人權和工人權利方面的記錄。
上月,武漢的一處建築工地。
上月,武漢的一處建築工地。 Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
Mr. Trump now calls China’s entry into the World Trade Organization “one of the greatest geopolitical and economic disasters in world history.”
如今,川普將中國加入世界貿易組織稱為是「世界歷史上最大的地緣政治和經濟災難之一」。
But support for China’s membership was widespread at the time, including in corporations and the Republican Party. And excluding the world’s most populous nation from the international trade system might have led to worse outcomes, analysts say.
但在當時,包括企業和共和黨在內,對中國入世的支持很廣泛。分析人士說,將世界上人口最多的國家排除在這個國際貿易體系之外,可能導致更糟糕的後果。
廣告
Chad Bown, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said that if China had not joined the World Trade Organization, the United States could have still lost manufacturing jobs to other countries as global trade and automation increased.
彼得森國際經濟研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)的高級研究員乍得·鮑恩(Chad Bown)表示,即使中國沒有加入世界貿易組織,隨著全球貿易增多和自動化程度提高,美國製造業的工作仍可能被其他國家代替。
“It’s not obvious to me that if China hadn’t been allowed in, that things would have developed in the U.S. differently,” he said.
「在我看來,即便沒讓中國加入,美國的情況並不會有明顯不同,」他說。
The United States also exacted a heavy price for China’s membership, far higher than for any other country that had joined the group thus far. China was forced to lower its high tariffs, alter thousands of laws and regulations, and adopt policies to open up markets.
美國也對中國的成員國資格索取了高昂價碼,遠遠高於迄今為止加入該組織的任何其他國家。中國被迫降低高關稅,更改成千上萬的法律法規,並採取政策開放市場。
But over the decades, China disappointed hopes for a broader transformation. State-owned enterprises strengthened their control of strategic industries, officials coerced technology transfer from foreign companies or outright stole corporate secrets, and the Communist Party limited the development of an independent judiciary. As its economy became stronger, China’s political system became less free.
但幾十年來,中國在更廣泛的轉型方面辜負了希望。國有企業加強了對戰略產業的控制,官員們強迫外國公司進行技術轉讓或直接竊取公司機密,共產黨限制獨立司法的發展。隨著經濟變得強大,中國的政治體制卻變得更不自由。
Some Democrats say President George W. Bush neglected China during a crucial period. As Beijing pushed forward with its economic opening, Mr. Bush — along with most American policymakers, including Mr. Biden — remained consumed with the Middle East and Afghanistan after the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11, 2001.
有民主黨人認為,喬治·W·布希總統在一個關鍵時期忽視了中國。隨著北京推進經濟開放,布希——與包括拜登在內的大多數美國決策者一樣——在2001年9月11日的恐怖襲擊之後一直被中東和阿富汗耗累。
Many American companies and consumers did benefit from the trade, but in parts of the country — especially in the industrial states that helped elect Mr. Trump in 2016 — shuttered factories and exported jobs produced fury at Beijing and Washington.
很多美國企業和消費者確實從中美貿易中受益,但在美國部分地區——特別是在2016年幫助川普當選的工業州——工廠關閉和工作外流引起人們對北京和華盛頓的憤怒。
廣告
From 1999 to 2011, competition from China cost the United States more than two million factory jobs, according to academic research. In the midst of that, flaws in the U.S. financial system set off a global economic crisis. In 2008 and 2009, as Mr. Biden took the reins of the second most powerful office in the United States, the major G.M. and Chrysler plants in his state shuttered.
學術研究表明,1999年到2011年間,中國的競爭使美國損失了超過200萬個工廠崗位。在此期間,美國金融體系的缺陷引發了全球經濟危機。2008與2009年,正當拜登掌權美國第二高位時,通用汽車和克萊斯勒在他家鄉州的大型工廠關閉了 。
Basketball and Battleships
籃球與戰艦
2011年,拜登在北京觀看一場籃球比賽。
2011年,拜登在北京觀看一場籃球比賽。 Pool photo by Ng Han Guan
At the end of his first term, President Barack Obama rolled out an ambitious shift in U.S. foreign policy, moving diplomatic and military resources from the Middle East to Asia, mainly to address the challenge of China. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called it a “pivot,” and Mr. Obama said “the United States is a Pacific power, and we are here to stay.” He put Marines in Australia and tried forging a trade pact among 12 Pacific Rim nations that was implicitly aimed at countering China.
歐巴馬總統在第一任期結束前,推出了一項雄心勃勃的外交政策轉變,將外交和軍事資源從中東轉移到亞洲,主要就是為了應對中國的挑戰。國務卿希拉蕊·柯林頓稱之為「支點」,歐巴馬「美國是太平洋國家,我們將堅守在這裡」。他將海軍陸戰隊部署在澳洲,並試圖在12個環太平洋國家之間達成一項貿易協定,暗中意在對抗中國。
Mr. Biden met with Mr. Xi at least eight times in 2011 and 2012 to gauge China’s incoming leader, even playing basketball with him at a high school in Sichuan Province.
在2011和2012年,拜登與習近平至少會晤八次,摸底這位即將上任的中國最高領導人,他們還在四川的一所高中一起打籃球
Mr. Campbell, the assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific Affairs who helped organize the trips, recalled that Mr. Biden had ended up judging Mr. Xi as tough and unsentimental, someone who questioned American power and believed in the superiority of the Communist Party. In a White House meeting, he said, Mr. Biden told advisers, “I think we’ve got our hands full with this guy.”
參與組織這些行程的東亞和太平洋事務助理國務卿坎貝爾回憶說,拜登對習近平的最終判斷是,此人強硬、講究實際,質疑美國的權力,且堅信共產黨的優勢。他說,拜登在一次白宮會議上告訴顧問說:「我認為,此人會讓我們有得忙的。」
Mr. Xi and other Chinese officials saw the pivot as Cold War-style containment. And in 2013, they started bolstering territorial and maritime claims in the East China Sea and South China Sea, which the U.S. military dominates. Mr. Biden supported the administration’s decision to fly U.S. bombers and sail warships through the zones, and he told Mr. Xi of Washington’s growing anger. The old relationship was fading.
習近平和其他中國官員將「支點」視為冷戰式的遏制。2013年,他們開始加強在中國東海南海的領土和海上主權主張,這些區域是由美國軍方主導的。拜登支持美國政府派轟炸機和軍艦航經這些地區的決定,他也將華盛頓與日俱增的憤怒告知習近平。舊關係正在瓦解。
“I wanted to make it clear that as long as they played by a set of basic international rules that were written, and he did not like the fact he didn’t write them — they didn’t write them — we’d have no problem,” Mr. Biden said in his interview with The Times. “But to the extent they tried to fundamentally alter the rules of airspace and seaspace, what constitutes freedom of navigation, et cetera, then we’d have a problem.”
「我想向他們表明,只要他們遵循既定的一套基本國際規則——當然,他對於規則非由他所定、不是他們說了算感到不滿——我們就相安無事。」拜登在接受《紐約時報》採訪時說,「但是如果他們想要從根本上改變領空和領海規則,改變構成航行自由的規則等等,那我們就有問題。」
A Kettle of Hawks
擠作一團的鷹派
6月,香港一個儀式上的中國人民解放軍。
6月,香港一個儀式上的中國人民解放軍。 Isaac Lawrence/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
Hours before Mr. Biden gave his Democratic nomination acceptance speech in August on a stage in Wilmington, Del., he received an unexpected boost.
8月,就在拜登於特拉華州威爾明市發表接受民主黨提名演講的數小時前,他得到了意料之外的宣傳。
Seventy-five Republican national security specialists, some of whom had worked for Mr. Trump, released a letter endorsing Mr. Biden. They asserted that Mr. Trump “lacks the character and competence to lead this nation and has engaged in corrupt behavior.”
75名共和黨國家安全專家(其中一些曾為川普工作)發表了一封支持拜登的信。他們斷言,川普「缺乏領導這個國家的品格與能力,並存在腐敗行為。」
The writers mentioned two episodes from Mr. Trump’s relationship with Mr. Xi: when he called on the Chinese leader last year to “start an investigation” into Mr. Biden and when he praised Mr. Xi as a “brilliant leader” — an example of Mr. Trump’s cozying up to dictators. The letter echoed recent devastating accounts, including from John R. Bolton, the former national security adviser, who called Mr. Trump’s approach to China haphazard and based on self-interest rather than the national interest.
信的作者們提到了川普與習近平關係中的兩件事:去年他呼籲這位中國領導人對拜登「展開調查」時,曾稱讚習近平是個「了不起的領導人」——這是川普討好獨裁者的一個例子。信中還呼應了近來一些破壞性極強的敘述,包括前國家安全顧問約翰·R·博爾頓(John R. Bolton)的話,他稱川普對中國的態度是隨心所欲的,是基於他自身利益而不是國家利益。
That message dovetailed with Mr. Biden’s: that Mr. Trump’s supposed toughness on China was a mirage. The Biden campaign has hammered the president over his response to the coronavirus, running advertisements reminding voters that Mr. Trump praised Mr. Xi’s handling of the pandemic. And Mr. Biden has said that Mr. Trump’s trade deal with China is “failing.”
這與拜登的信息相吻合:川普對中國的所謂強硬不過是個假象。拜登團隊抨擊了總統對冠狀病毒的反應,推出廣告提醒選民,川普曾讚美習近平對疫情的處理。而拜登還曾說過,川普與中國的貿易協定「失敗了」。
Mr. Biden’s attempts to out-hawk Mr. Trump have prompted some blowback: Some Asian-Americans have criticized his anti-China advertisements as racist. And progressive critics of American power say Mr. Biden is perpetuating misguided ideas of U.S. superiority.
拜登試圖比川普更鷹派的做法引發了一些負面效應:一些亞裔美國人批評他的反華廣告是種族主義。而批評美國力量的進步人士表示,拜登在延續美國優越性的錯誤信念
But Mr. Biden is under political pressure to look tough. A new poll conducted by the Pew Research Center found that 73 percent of Americans had an unfavorable view of China, the highest in at least 15 years. More than half see China as a competitor.
但拜登面臨著需要表現出強硬的政治壓力。皮尤研究中心(Pew Research Center)的一項新民調發現,73%的美國人對中國持負面看法,這是至少15年來的最高水平。超過一半的人將中國視為競爭對手。
With his trade proposals, Mr. Biden has tried to bridge the views between the Democratic Party’s center and its left wing, led by Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont. That has sometimes resulted in ambiguity. Mr. Biden has not committed to removing Mr. Trump’s tariffs on China; his aides say he would first review how they affect the American middle class.
通過貿易提議,拜登試圖在民主黨中間派和以佛蒙特州參議員伯尼·桑德斯(Bernie Sanders)為首的左翼之間架起一座橋樑。這有時會導致其立場模糊。拜登沒有承諾取消川普對中國徵收的關稅;助手們表示,他將首先審視這些政策對美國中產階級會產生什麼影響。
Mr. Biden has also held back from promising to have the United States enter the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which, despite Mr. Obama’s efforts, failed to gain enough support among Americans partly because of opposition from labor unions and progressive Democratic politicians. Japan helped finalize the agreement.
拜登也還沒有承諾讓美國加入「跨太平洋夥伴關係協定」(Trans Pacific Partnership),儘管歐巴馬做出了努力,但由於工會和進步派民主黨政客的反對,該協定並未在美國人中獲得足夠支持。日本曾幫助達成這一協定。
Some of Mr. Biden’s ideas echo those of Trump officials, including incentives to move important corporate supply chains out of China. He envisions using the federal government’s purchasing power, through “Buy American plans,” to bolster manufacturing of critical goods like pharmaceuticals at home.
拜登的一些想法與川普手下的官員一致,包括為重要的企業供應鏈移出中國提供激勵措施。他設想利用聯邦政府的購買力,通過「購買美國貨的計劃」,來促進藥品等重要商品的國內生產。
But while Mr. Trump and Mr. Sanders call for punishing China, Mr. Biden’s aides emphasize a restoration of U.S. domestic strength. Speaking in June at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Jake Sullivan, one of Mr. Biden’s top advisers, said the United States “should put less focus on trying to slow China down and more emphasis on trying to run faster ourselves.” Aides say that includes making investments in scientific research and emerging U.S. industries, as well as restoring alliances abroad.
但當川普和桑德斯都呼籲懲罰中國的時候,拜登的助手強調的是恢復美國國內實力。6月,拜登的高級助手之一傑克·蘇利文(Jake Sullivan)在卡內基國際和平研究院(Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)講話時表示,美國「應少關注怎麼讓中國減速,多關注怎麼讓自己跑得更快」。助手們表示,這將包括對科學研究和美國新興產業的投資,以及恢復海外同盟關係。
新疆和田一處戒備森嚴的設施。據信,這裡是針對維吾爾族人的再教育營。
新疆和田一處戒備森嚴的設施。據信,這裡是針對維吾爾族人的再教育營。 Greg Baker/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
On human rights, Mr. Biden insists China must pay a price. A campaign spokesman said in August that Mr. Biden believed the Chinese government was committing “genocide” against ethnic Uighur Muslims in the Xinjiang region. Mr. Biden says he will impose sanctions and commercial restrictions on Chinese officials and entities responsible for repression. While the Trump administration has recently sanctioned companies and individuals involved in Xinjiang, Mr. Trump had previously encouraged Mr. Xi to keep building internment camps there, Mr. Bolton wrote, and to handle pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong in his own way.
在人權問題上,拜登堅稱中國必須付出代價。一位競選發言人在8月表示,拜登認為中國政府正在對新疆地區的維吾爾族穆斯林群體進行「種族滅絕」。拜登說,他將對負責鎮壓的中國官員和實體實施制裁和商業限制。雖然川普政府最近制裁了參與新疆事務的企業和個人,但博爾頓寫道,川普此前曾鼓勵習近平在那裡繼續建設拘禁營,並以自己的方式處理香港的民主抗議者。
Mr. Biden plans to try to win China’s cooperation on issues like climate change, Iran and North Korea. But that could be a challenge if Trump administration hawks succeed in hard-wiring hostility into the relationship. And regardless, every interaction with China, Mr. Campbell said, was a negotiation in which Chinese officials tried to find a source of leverage, “even when it’s something that’s in their mutual interest, like climate change.”
拜登計劃在氣候變化、伊朗和朝鮮等問題上爭取贏得中國的合作。但如果川普政府的鷹派成功在兩國關係中植入強硬敵意,這可能會是個挑戰。坎貝爾說,無論如何,與中國的每次互動都是一場談判,而中國官員都將試圖在其中尋找籌碼,「哪怕是符合他們共同利益的事情,比如氣候變化。」
In the past few years, China has lost the benefit of the doubt among Mr. Campbell and other key Biden advisers, all Obama administration veterans who are likely to hold important government posts if Mr. Biden wins.
在過去幾年裡,坎貝爾和拜登的其他重要顧問都對中國失去了信任,他們都曾在歐巴馬政府任職,若拜登當選,可能會再次擔任重要的政府職位。
In their 2018 essay, Mr. Campbell and Mr. Ratner urged “doing away with the hopeful thinking” of the past. Mr. Sullivan, Antony J. Blinken and Jeffrey Prescott, all members of Mr. Biden’s inner circle, agree on the need to confront China on bad behavior. Susan Rice and Samantha Power, often mentioned as potential candidates for secretary of state, denounce Beijing’s atrocities on ethnic Uighurs and repression in Hong Kong.
在2018年的評論文章中,坎貝爾和拉特納呼籲「摒棄過去那種一廂情願的想法」。蘇利文、安東尼·J·布林肯(Antony J. Blinken)和傑弗里·普雷史考特(Jeffrey Prescott)都是拜登核心圈子成員,都認為有必要對抗中國的不良行為。常被提及為國務卿候選人的蘇珊·萊斯(Susan Rice)和薩曼莎·鮑爾(Samantha Power)也譴責了北京對維吾爾族的暴行和在香港的鎮壓。
“They’ll use carrots and sticks and pressure and reassurance to negotiate with the Chinese side,” said Susan L. Shirk, a China scholar at the University of California, San Diego, and a State Department official under President Bill Clinton. “I don’t think they’ll shy away from imposing costs.”
「與中方的談判,他們會用上胡蘿蔔加大棒、施壓加撫慰的策略,」加州大學聖地牙哥分校的中國學者謝淑麗(Susan L. Shirk)說,她曾在柯林頓總統任內擔任國務院官員。「我不認為他們會對讓其付出代價有所迴避。」
One thing is clear: If Mr. Biden becomes president, his 40-year association with China will reach a crescendo. Analysts on both sides of the Pacific say greater conflict may be inevitable, given the two nations’ ideological systems, nationalist sentiments and trajectories — one a superpower on the ascent, the other trying to preserve its reach. Wang Yi, China’s foreign minister, said his nation rejected a “new Cold War,” but he emphasized that “the United States must abandon its fantasy of remodeling China to U.S. needs.”
有一件事是明確的:如果拜登成為總統,他與中國的40年往來將會迎來一個頂峰。太平洋兩岸的分析人士都表示,鑒於兩國的意識型態體系、民族主義情緒和發展軌跡——一個是正在崛起的超級大國,另一個則試圖保持其影響力,更大的衝突或許不可避免。中國外交部長王毅稱他的國家拒絕「新冷戰」,但也強調「美國必須丟掉按自己的需要改造中國的幻想」。
Mr. Wang’s words have added resonance as Mr. Biden and his fellow policymakers wrestle with their earlier mission of trying to transform China. Even on his 2001 trip, Mr. Biden heard a similar message about the limits of American agency when he tried to highlight democratic ideals in a discussion with about 40 graduate students at Fudan University in Shanghai.
當拜登和他的政策制定同僚還在為試圖改造中國的舊使命掙扎,王毅的話已經引起了更多共鳴。甚至在他2001年的訪問中,拜登在上海復旦大學與大約40名研究生的討論會上試圖強調民主理想時,也聽到類似的聲音在指出美國影響力的局限性。
“There’s a question I’ve been meaning to ask students of China,” Mr. Biden said, according to Mr. Jannuzi, who is now the president of the Maureen and Mike Mansfield Foundation. “The students of Tiananmen Square, were they patriots or traitors to the People’s Republic of China?”
「我一直想問中國學生一個問題,」據現任莫琳和邁克·曼斯菲爾德基金會(Maureen and Mike Mansfield Foundation)會長的詹努齊表示,拜登當時是這麼說的。「天安門廣場上的那些學生,他們是中華人民共和國的愛國者還是叛國者?」
There was silence. Then, a physics student, a scholar of Newton and Einstein, stood up.
現場鴉雀無聲。隨後,一位研究牛頓和愛因斯坦的物理系學生站了起來。
“The students of Tiananmen were heroes of the People’s Republic of China,” he said. “Senator, change will come to China. But it will be we, the students of Newton, who determine the pace and the direction of that change, and not you or anyone else working on the banks of the Potomac.”
「天安門的學生是中華人民共和國的英雄,」他說。「參議員,中國會迎來變革。但決定這一變革步伐和方向的,是我們這些牛頓的學生,而不是你或者任何一個在波托馬克河畔工作的人。」