Will voters push back against Austin City Council’s shift to left?

For the past two years, the Austin City Council members representing districts everywhere from Barton Hills to Northwest Hills and Riverside to River Place have leaned left of the political center. It’s the first time since the city broke off into 10 council districts with an at-large citywide mayor in 2014 that liberals held every seat at City Hall.

Perhaps, then, it comes as little surprise that council races this year are largely a referendum on the decisions the council made while conservatives were out of office — none more polarizing than repealing the city’s homeless camping ordinance last year and making cuts and changes to the Austin Police Department’s budget this year.

The presence of a conservative or two on the council would not have been enough to block those moves. But, former Council Member Ellen Troxclair said, “there is value in an alternative viewpoint being represented and discussed even if it’s not always adopted.”

Troxclair, a Republican who left the council at the end of her term in 2018, has reappeared this election season as a board member for a new political action committee that supports conservative candidates. Don Zimmerman, another former council member and a Republican, is raising money on behalf of conservative candidate Mackenzie Kelly in the West Austin district that Zimmerman once represented.

Even with anti-left fodder for conservatives to latch onto, they might have a difficult time coloring the blue City Council with a drop or two of red this election cycle. All four Democrats seeking reelection have raised the most money in their respective races and all have garnered many of the coveted political endorsements around town.

Moreover, liberals are energized to try to end President Donald Trump’s run in the White House — which could mean trouble for local conservative candidates when voters get to down-ballot races. Travis County voters — who historically and overwhelmingly favor Democratic candidates — saw ever-increasing early voting turnout last week that culminated with more than 40,000 votes cast on Friday.

“Voters will think, ‘Is this person for Donald Trump?’ They will eliminate all of those choices,” local political consultant Mark Littlefield said. He predicted all four incumbent council members will be reelected, “with maybe one or two of them having to go to a runoff to get there.”

In 2016, Trump received 27% of the vote in Travis County against Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.

Moving further left

Municipal races are technically nonpartisan, meaning that regardless of a candidate’s political views there will be no “D” or “R” next to his or her name on the ballot. Residents in half of Austin also will not have a say this year, as they live in districts whose council seats aren’t on the ballot this time. The mayor’s spot is also not on the ballot.

There was a point in Austin’s history, only six years ago, when conservatives or moderates made up more than a quarter of the council.

In 2014, the first election after the city formed council districts, voters elected into office conservatives Zimmerman in District 6 and Troxclair in District 8, and a third candidate, Sheri Gallo, who was somewhere in the middle of the political spectrum, in District 10. It was a clean sweep in the three more conservative-leaning districts located primarily west of MoPac Boulevard (Loop 1).

That didn’t take long to change. In 2016, Zimmerman was ousted by Flannigan in a rematch after Zimmerman had won in 2014. Alison Alter took Gallo to a runoff in December and beat her.

For the next two years, Troxclair was the only conservative on the council. She decided against running for reelection in 2018. Liberal Paige Ellis now represents the district.

Troxclair said that, in the two years since her departure, she has observed the council moving further to the left, aligning with a wing of members led by Flannigan, Greg Casar and Delia Garza.

Beyond the changes to the camping ordinance and the police budget, the council also loosened restrictions on marijuana possession and, in Troxclair’s final year on the council, approved an ordinance requiring most businesses to provide paid sick time to employees. The ordinance was struck down by state courts.

“I know for a fact many of those members in the past have not leaned that far that way,” Troxclair said. “I don’t know what has allowed that to happen.”

Troxclair is a board member of the political action committee Fight for Austin, which launched last month with the goal of raising $300,000 to support candidates who prioritize public safety. It had raised $108,000 through Oct. 2, according to a recent campaign finance report. Local Republican leader Matt Mackowiak said Friday that the PAC has now raised $210,000.

“I absolutely think decisions the council has made regarding the homeless population in Austin as well as defunding police are driving people to wake up and get involved in those elections in a nonpartisan way,” Troxclair said.

Zimmerman said he has observed the council moving increasingly to the left since his departure. He said he believes it will continue. “Voters are overwhelmingly leaning to the left, so I’m not sure how the problem can be fixed,” he said.

Like their government counterparts at City Hall, the Travis County Commissioners Court could turn completely blue this election depending on the results of a race in the western part of the county pitting Republican and onetime City Council candidate Becky Bray against Democratic nominee Ann Howard. The winner replaces Republican Gerald Daugherty. In the countywide race for the court’s top executive position, county judge, Democrat Andy Brown is favored over Republican nominee Michael Lovins.

Mark Jones, a Rice University political science professor, said that a governing body whose members all have the same political leanings can lead to an erosion of transparency unless factions of that party form to hold each other accountable.

“It is less likely co-partisans are going to serve as watchdogs on things such as corruption, fraud, mismanagement or simply poor decisions,” Jones said.

Council Member Leslie Pool — who is running for re-election in District 7 against political newcomer Morgan Witt, a Democrat — disputed the notion that the council has grown too politically alike without dissenting conservative voices. She said council members vote on issues based on what they believe is in the interest of their district constituents and not to appease other council members.

“Austin looks like it has moved all the way off to the left because the state of Texas and our national administration is so far off to the right,” Pool said. “I hope we’ll address and change that.”

Two districts in play

Two City Council districts have a higher possibility of electing a more conservative council member this year than any of the others.

Jennifer Virden and Robert Thomas are running to the right in District 10, fighting against each other for conservative turf in a crowded race that appears destined for a runoff. When not targeting each other, they’ve gone after incumbent Alter, often blaming her for the city’s homelessness crisis even though Alter was one of two council members who voted against lifting the camping ban. Other candidates in the race are liberal Pooja Sethi, moderate Belinda Greene and Ben Easton, who in the past ran for state and congressional offices as a Libertarian.

In District 6, Flannigan faces competition from the right in the form of pro-law enforcement candidate Mackenzie Kelly and Dr. Jennifer Mushtaler, the River Place Limited District president who is running as a moderate Democrat. A third challenger, Dee Harrison, has a history of voting as a Republican.

In District 4, Casar has raised over $100,000 since launching his campaign in May and looks like a safe bet over Ramesses II Setepenre and Louis Herrin, who ran unsuccessfully against Casar in 2014 and 2016.

District 2 in Southeast Austin, the only seat guaranteed to get a new occupant with the departure of Council Member Delia Garza, has mostly been a competition between Democrats Vanessa Fuentes and David Chincanchan. Also in the race is former professional boxer Casey Ramos, who is running to the right of the other two and has pulled in support from a political action committee that formed to back conservative candidates. A fourth candidate, Alex Strenger, now says he has dropped out and supports Ramos.