A new study from Rice University's Baker Institute reveals that states which imposed initial strict lockdown measures early on in the COVID-19 pandemic saw fewer deaths later on.Rice University researchers weighed that certain actions, such as shutdowns, could result in critical life-saving effects that might not be apparent until months later, according to the study, "State Restrictions and COVID-19 Death Rate." "The most important finding is that strict lockdowns will have benefits many months in the future, many months down the road," Baker Institute Chair of Health Economics Dr. Vivian Ho told Chron. "That's the most surprising."While states like New York and Connecticut experienced a surge in COVID-19 cases early in the pandemic, other states like Wyoming and Alaska were not as affected by COVID-19 cases at the onset of the pandemic."States like New York, Connecticut, and Massachusetts that experienced high COVID-19 death rates responded to those deaths by reducing their openness," the Rice University study stated. "Conversely, states with low DDPM (Daily Deaths Per Million), like South Dakota, Wyoming, and Alaska, remained relatively open and adopted a few restrictions."According to the study, states that experienced more deaths early on in April and March imposed stronger restrictions. Months after key states imposed strict lockdowns and stay-at-home orders, these states had lower rates of COVID-19 deaths compared to states with more lenient restrictions. For example, New York experienced daily death rates as high as 1,000 deaths per day early on the pandemic. However after introduction of new restrictions, they saw a "flattening of the curve."Video: New COVID-19 variant triggers travel bans, lockdowns"After introducing strict statewide closures, states that were heavily impacted by COVID-19, like New York and New Jersey, saw reductions in their average death rates," the study stated. Researchers determined each state's openness by implementing an index from WalletHub. It scores states based upon a range of restrictions from requirements to wear masks in public to reopening of bars. WalletHub then evaluated states a total of nine times throughout the pandemic, from May 5 to Oct. 5, as their restrictions changed.Ho stated that another important finding from the study is that what a state does at the beginning of the pandemic is critical.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"What I take from the numbers is that with the lockdowns, there is an association with COVID-19 deaths many months later," Ho said. "What really matters is what you do at the start. Government officials have more leeway to impose to strict lockdowns when the public is shocked by the deaths they are seeing. That also influences their behavior for many months."Of significant note, Ho commented about the economic impact of a lockdown and repercussions of shutting down the economy due to a shutdown."The data also shows that these lockdowns do have economic consequences with more unemployment," Ho said. "The unemployment gets worse and then numbers start to improve. Allowing the economy now when the virus rates are so high only brings back half the economy. We can't get the full recovery, until everyone out there who's afraid feels it's safe to go back out again."At this juncture in the pandemic, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has stated he will not issue another shutdown, even as COVID-19 cases rise. Ho added that Abbott is in a difficult position right now."Gov. Abbott is stuck between a rock and hard place," Ho said. "If it were his choice and there were no political consequences, he would shut down hard, but there are people leaning on him who don't understand the situation. I think he feels forced to say, 'I can't lock down again.'"
A new study from Rice University's Baker Institute reveals that states which imposed initial strict lockdown measures early on in the COVID-19 pandemic saw fewer deaths later on.
Rice University researchers weighed that certain actions, such as shutdowns, could result in critical life-saving effects that might not be apparent until months later, according to the study, "State Restrictions and COVID-19 Death Rate."
"The most important finding is that strict lockdowns will have benefits many months in the future, many months down the road," Baker Institute Chair of Health Economics Dr. Vivian Ho told Chron. "That's the most surprising."
While states like New York and Connecticut experienced a surge in COVID-19 cases early in the pandemic, other states like Wyoming and Alaska were not as affected by COVID-19 cases at the onset of the pandemic.
"States like New York, Connecticut, and Massachusetts that experienced high COVID-19 death rates responded to those deaths by reducing their openness," the Rice University study stated. "Conversely, states with low DDPM (Daily Deaths Per Million), like South Dakota, Wyoming, and Alaska, remained relatively open and adopted a few restrictions."
According to the study, states that experienced more deaths early on in April and March imposed stronger restrictions. Months after key states imposed strict lockdowns and stay-at-home orders, these states had lower rates of COVID-19 deaths compared to states with more lenient restrictions. For example, New York experienced daily death rates as high as 1,000 deaths per day early on the pandemic. However after introduction of new restrictions, they saw a "flattening of the curve."
Video: New COVID-19 variant triggers travel bans, lockdowns
"After introducing strict statewide closures, states that were heavily impacted by COVID-19, like New York and New Jersey, saw reductions in their average death rates," the study stated.
Researchers determined each state's openness by implementing an index from WalletHub. It scores states based upon a range of restrictions from requirements to wear masks in public to reopening of bars. WalletHub then evaluated states a total of nine times throughout the pandemic, from May 5 to Oct. 5, as their restrictions changed.
Ho stated that another important finding from the study is that what a state does at the beginning of the pandemic is critical.
"What I take from the numbers is that with the lockdowns, there is an association with COVID-19 deaths many months later," Ho said. "What really matters is what you do at the start. Government officials have more leeway to impose to strict lockdowns when the public is shocked by the deaths they are seeing. That also influences their behavior for many months."
Of significant note, Ho commented about the economic impact of a lockdown and repercussions of shutting down the economy due to a shutdown.
"The data also shows that these lockdowns do have economic consequences with more unemployment," Ho said. "The unemployment gets worse and then numbers start to improve. Allowing the economy now when the virus rates are so high only brings back half the economy. We can't get the full recovery, until everyone out there who's afraid feels it's safe to go back out again."
At this juncture in the pandemic, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has stated he will not issue another shutdown, even as COVID-19 cases rise. Ho added that Abbott is in a difficult position right now.
"Gov. Abbott is stuck between a rock and hard place," Ho said. "If it were his choice and there were no political consequences, he would shut down hard, but there are people leaning on him who don't understand the situation. I think he feels forced to say, 'I can't lock down again.'"
