Who’s going dancing? Predicting the final week of women’s conference tournaments

Three more conference tournaments were decided on Tuesday. Gonzaga overcame a nine-point deficit in the fourth quarter to send BYU home on a buzzer-beater by senior guard Jill Townsend, winning the West Coast Conference championship 43-42. Wright State and South Dakota won their respective conference titles earlier Tuesday to earn automatic bids to the NCAA Tournament.

In all, 10 teams have qualified for the tournament in San Antonio. We’re inching closer to March Madness, but there is still a lot of action this week in conferences all across the country.

To get you ready for the next five days, while teams wrap up their seasons and others close in on invitations to the Big Dance, here’s what you can expect heading into Selection Monday.

Chalk in the Big Ten finals, but chaos in the semis

I’m going with a Maryland-Indiana final in the Big Ten tournament, which is not the most imaginative final pick, I know. But I have Maryland getting there with a win over Northwestern and Indiana getting there with a close (maybe overtime) win over Caitlin Clark … I mean, Iowa.

Let’s start with: Why Northwestern over Michigan? I have three reasons.

One: Northwestern played a much better game the second time around against Michigan. In their first matchup, the Wolverines shot a season-best 63 percent from the floor. In their second matchup, the Northwestern defense we’ve grown accustomed to seeing showed up and held Michigan to 63 points, below its season average.

Two: In the latter half of the season, I think Big Ten teams have realized they can beat the Wolverines if they just accept that Hillmon will get hers. Without consistent offensive help around the Big Ten Player of the Year, they can focus on shutting down everyone else in Michigan’s lineup.

Three: When I was growing up, my dad used to say, “It’s so hard to beat a team three times in one season.” I think he used to say this because I was on teams that lost a lot, but I’ve also generally found this to be true. The third win in one season is always the hardest to get.

And why Iowa over Rutgers?

It’ll be a matchup of scorer versus scorer and playmaker versus playmaker game in Clark versus Arella Guirantes, and 99 times out of 100 in this type of scenario, I’ll go with the player who isn’t the freshman.

But this isn’t just any freshman.

Heading into the Big Ten tournament, Clark is now the nation’s leading scorer at 27.4 points per game. She knocks down 42 percent of her 3-point attempts, which is better than some good post players hit from the block.

The last time Iowa was among the top-10 teams in scoring was during the 2014-15 season. That year, the Hawkeyes advanced to the semifinals of the Big Ten tournament, where they lost to Ohio State in overtime. Now, with the Hawkeyes as the second-leading scoring team in the nation, I think they make it back to the semifinals and meet a Hoosiers team that finds the answers against Iowa for the third time this season. (I know I just said it’s really hard to beat a team three times in one year, but I think Indiana will do it.)

🚨 #B1GNews Alert#B1GWBBall fans! It's been a historic season and the #B1GTourney bracket is set.
Mark your calendar and follow your favorite team during the tournament. The action begins Tuesday. Tune in because March is On and it's going to be 🔥

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— Big Ten Women's Hoops (@B1Gwbball) March 7, 2021

My pick for the Big Ten championship: No. 1 Maryland over No. 2 Indiana, and Katie Benzan gets hot from range.

Death, taxes and Baylor winning the Big 12 regular season

The Bears won their 11th consecutive Big 12 regular season championship last week, and accentuated it with a 23-point win over a top-20 West Virginia team on Monday night. Kim Mulkey has her team running like clockwork and, because of that, you know what to expect — championships.

Over those 11 years, the only time Baylor hasn’t won the Big 12 tournament title was in 2017, when West Virginia claimed it. The Mountaineers, as the six-seed, upset Oklahoma and Texas en route to their 11-point win over Baylor in the finals.

A lot went right for West Virginia during that run. In the quarterfinals against Oklahoma, the Mountaineers shot lights out — 56 percent from the floor, including 45 percent from beyond the arc. In the semifinals against Texas, they hit key free throws late, despite being a 73 percent free-throw shooting team that year. And in the finals against Baylor, the Mountaineers held the Bears’ bench completely scoreless.

So, is there a team that has that kind of potential to upend the ways of world in this year’s Big 12 Tournament? I don’t think so. There are some good teams in the conference, but I don’t see chaos coming out of the Big 12.

(Please note: Now that I’ve said this, there is at least a 37 percent chance that ultimate chaos will erupt, and you can point back to the previous paragraph for the reason.)

The bracket for the 2021 Phillips 66 Big 12 Women's Basketball Championship is set! 🏆

WVU is seeded #⃣2⃣ in this year's tournament and will face the winner of #⃣7⃣ Texas Tech and #⃣🔟 Kansas State on Friday at 6:30 p.m. ET!

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— WVU Women's Basketball (@WVUWBB) March 9, 2021

My pick for the Big 12 championship: Baylor over Oklahoma State in a big win.

Here’s a quick rundown, as of Tuesday morning, of the remaining conferences we haven’t discussed yet. For a full list of locations and dates for conference tournaments, check out our live tracker through Selection Monday.

AAC: With UConn back in the Big East, there’s an opportunity in the AAC for another team to get an automatic qualifier to the NCAA Tournament. South Florida secured the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament despite dropping two of its last three games to Houston and Central Florida. Still, I expect the Bulls to go dancing behind big performances from Bethy Mununga and Elisa Pinzan.

America East: Maine leads the conference in scoring offense and is second in scoring defense. Stony Brook could put up a fight here, but I’ve got the Black Bears headed to Texas on the shoulders of Blanca Millan, who is having her best season yet on both ends of the floor.

Atlantic 10: Dayton played the second-fewest games among Atlantic 10 teams, but they’ve got one big advantage on their side to help with that: experience. The Flyers start three redshirt seniors, one junior and one sophomore. Bold take: Could VCU — which picked up the five-seed, but played the most games of all the A10 teams — make a run on its home court?

Atlantic Sun: Florida Gulf Coast went through the regular season undefeated thanks to five players who attempt at least 3.9 shots from beyond the 3-point line every game. As such, the Eagles attempt and make the most long-range shots in women’s college basketball. But it’s not just their long-range game that opponents should fear. The Eagles shoot 59.8 percent from inside the 3-point line, which also leads the nation.

Big Sky: The Big Sky conference tournament could be particularly eventful. No. 1 seed Idaho State went 1-1 in two games apiece this season against two-seed Idaho and three-seed Montana State, meaning the top of this conference could provide some fireworks. I’m going to go outside of chalk here and pick Montana State as my Big Sky winner. Why? Sophomore guard Darian White ranks in the top five in scoring, assists and steals in the conference. Bonus: The Big Sky Tournament is in White’s hometown of Boise, Idaho, where I think she’ll make herself at home.

Big South: High Point’s regular season championship was its first since 2014, and I think junior guard Skyler Curran will lead this squad to its first NCAA Tournament appearance. Her improvement from last season to this season is significant, with her shooting percentage and free-throw percentage each jumping 10 percent. That should be enough to get the Panthers to the Big Dance in coach Chelsea Banbury’s second season.

Big West: UC Davis’ two losses this season came after a road trip (via plane) to Hawaii and to the Oregon Ducks. They’ve played only 12 games total, which would’ve disqualified them for the NCAA Tournament at the beginning of the season, but not now. Still, the Aggies are the best shooting team in the Big West — from the floor, from beyond the arc and at the free-throw line. But keep an eye on Long Beach State, whose defense creates chaos and steals and whose offense doesn’t turn the ball over itself.

Colonial: Delaware seems to have the inside track to this Colonial title, but James Madison gave the Blue Hens two tough games this season and they split the results. Delaware needed overtime to beat the Dukes in the first game and fell in the second. Frankly, this feels like it could be a toss-up if these two teams meet in the finals. Keeping key players out of foul trouble and not turning the ball over would be the key in that title game. My pick: James Madison in a close one.

Conference USA: The best defense in the conference belongs to Rice. I think slowing high scorers will be the key in this conference tournament, and the Owls are best positioned to do that. The toughest matchup would be Rice versus Middle Tennessee State’s Anastasia Hayes in the title game. Even with Hayes’ unique ability to create offense, I’m picking Rice and its defense to win the day.

Horizon: IUPUI and Wright State face off in the title game Tuesday afternoon. These two teams haven’t seen each another since last season, when IUPUI swept the Raiders. This year, I’m going with the Raiders. Why? Common opponents. The best common opponent between these two teams was Milwaukee. IUPUI went 1-2 against the Panthers, while the Raiders went 2-0.

MAAC: Marist has dropped three games this season, but none by more than seven points. That ability to keep the score close in tough games, along with the senior leadership of Willow Duffell (leading rebounder) and Allie Best (leads team in assists), bodes well for the Red Foxes.

MAC: Hello, MACtion or should I say “MArChtion.” Does that not work? That probably doesn’t work. I don’t love Bowling Green’s offensive rebounding numbers, but I’m still going with the Falcons. Here’s why: Their defense holds opponents to fewer than 64 points, they lead the conference in turnover margin and assist-to-turnover ratio, and I think Lexi Fleming will have herself a tournament.

MEAC: North Carolina A&T leads the MEAC in scoring offense and scoring defense, field-goal percentage and defensive rebounding. And I expect Georgia Tech grad transfer Chanin Scott will lead this group back to the NCAA Tournament, where it made its most recent appearance in 2018 (an 11-point loss to then-two-seed South Carolina).

Missouri Valley: Missouri State started its season with wins over two teams I’ve picked to win their respective conference tournaments — Florida Gulf Coast and Maryland — and they’ve been just as impressive since. Missouri State has produced some really impressive coaches, among them Cheryl Burnett, Katie Abrahamson-Henderson (now at UCF) and Kellie Harper (now at Tennessee). I see Amaka Agugua-Hamilton continuing that tradition and leading the Bears to their 16th NCAA Tournament appearance in her second season.

Mountain West: Wyoming’s upset of two-seed UNLV was quite the surprise, but I think it will be one-seed New Mexico that ultimately takes the Mountain West title. They lead the league in scoring, assists and fewest turnovers and are second in steals. They’re the only team with four scorers in the top 15 of the conference. That type of balanced production will get the job done in the Mountain West.

NEC: Mount St. Mary’s Kendall Bresee was named both the Northeast Conference Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year earlier this week, and I think that encapsulates why the Mountaineers will win the NEC this season. They lead the conference in scoring offense, rebounding margin and assist-to-turnover ratio, and they have Bresee’s senior leadership to get the job done.

Patriot: Bucknell didn’t start their 2020-21 season until 2021. They managed to fit in eight games in January, before going on pause and not returning until this past weekend when they beat Loyola (MD) by 15. Understandably, the Bison showed some rust. But four of their five starters are juniors or seniors, meaning this is a group that can weather the bumps. This Thursday, Bucknell will face Lehigh, a team that literally accounted for half of the Bison’s regular-season games and wins. With more time together on the court, I think Bucknell will regroup enough to take down American or Boston University in the finals and punch a ticket to the program’s fifth NCAA Tournament.

Southland: Stephen F. Austin is riding a 17-game win streak (including a 14-0 record in conference play) coming into the Southland Tournament. Their overall strength of schedule hasn’t been good, but they’ve won big nonetheless. And with byes until the semifinals, their legs will be fresh as they prepare to run their way to their first NCAA Tournament appearance in 15 years.

Summit: South Dakota and Omaha face off Tuesday afternoon for a bid to the NCAA Tournament. This was one of the few meetings cancelled during the Summit League regular season, so there is no head-to-head matchup to evaluate. I’m leaning toward the Coyotes in this one. The Mavericks had huge upsets over top-seeded South Dakota State and five-seed Western Illinois, but I think South Dakota will be ready. Coyotes by 10.

SWAC: Jackson State has a real one-two punch in senior guard Dayzsha Rogan and senior center Ameshya Williams. This team might have started the season 2-4, but the Lady Tigers are on a 13-game win streak that includes victories over every team in the SWAC tournament. Jackson State uses the inside-outside combination of Rogan-Williams to continue winning.

WAC: My pick to win the WAC tournament is Cal Baptist, but since they’re ineligible to play in the NCAA Tournament, that means we’ll likely see Utah Valley in San Antonio. Depending on what interests you about these conference tournaments, you might be watching the WAC for different reasons. Want to see a mid-major team that could be busting your bracket in years to come and a coach, in CBU’s Jarrod Olson, who could be on the Power-5 circuit very soon? Check out Cal Baptist. Want to see the team that will likely face off against a one-seed in the first round this year? Check out Utah Valley.

West Coast: BYU and Gonzaga meet Tuesday night for the third time this season, but now with the most on the line. The teams split their two games during the regular season, both of which were close. BYU is the only West Coast Conference team that has beaten Gonzaga this season. Ahead of that game, I put the Zags on uspet watch, and I’m doing it again this week.

(Photo of Katie Benzan: Terrance Williams / Associated Press)