It’s officially “talking season.”
Spring football is over, summer recruiting is on deck and many coaches are using this period to barnstorm the state, schmoozing alumni and talking up their teams. On Monday, I stopped by Aggieland to see Jimbo Fisher speak to the Brazos County A&M Club. On Wednesday, Baylor coach Dave Aranda visited the Houston Touchdown Club to discuss the Bears’ outlook.
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Spoiler alert: Neither coach revealed their respective starting quarterback.
Anyway, let’s get right to your questions:
Note: Submitted questions are lightly edited for length and clarity.
Historically, Texas has been the top branded football program in the state, with the largest fan interest and most money. Those advantages translated into recruiting, as well. All of UT’s advantages were unassailable as long as their in-state rivals stayed in the same conference.
Is it fair to say that Texas A&M’s move to the SEC changed that equation? It seems that A&M has been able to leverage being a part of the SEC to seemingly become on par with UT (or maybe to have surpassed UT) in terms of recruitability, if not in terms of overall brand (yet). How do you see future trends between the two schools? — Jeff C.
Let’s start with the basics: In the nine seasons since Texas A&M moved to the SEC, its overall record is 77-37. The Aggies are 50-37 against Power 5 competition, they’ve finished four seasons ranked in the Top 25, including two top-five finishes in the Associated Press poll. Their average national recruiting ranking in their nine classes as official SEC members is 10th and they’ve had two head coaches (Kevin Sumlin, Jimbo Fisher). Texas A&M produced 34 picks in the last nine NFL Drafts, including six first-rounders. It had a Heisman Trophy winner.
In that same span, Texas is 65-48 overall, 54-46 against Power 5 teams. The Longhorns also have four Top-25 finishes but only one top-10 finish and none in the top five. Texas’ average national recruiting rank in its last nine classes is 11th. The Longhorns are on their fourth head coach (Steve Sarkisian, who followed Tom Herman, who followed Charlie Strong, who followed Mack Brown). Texas has produced 25 picks in the last nine NFL Drafts, including two first-rounders.
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That data speaks for itself. The Aggies have, without question, leveled the playing field with Texas in many ways — and in some ways, surpassed the Longhorns. Texas A&M football has certainly been more stable, as evidenced by the minimal coaching turnover. The Aggies flirted with the College Football Playoff last year, something the Longhorns haven’t done yet (in fairness to Texas, the Longhorns played for a conference championship in 2018, something A&M hasn’t done yet). The two schools are consistently among the top-five nationally in athletics department revenue.
The future trends of these two depend upon two things that go hand-in-hand: recruiting success and head coaching stability. The move to the SEC was a game-changer for Texas A&M, but not simply because it moved conferences. The reason it became such a big deal was because the Aggies won as soon as they arrived. If they got beat up regularly, like Arkansas did following its move in 1992, then we wouldn’t be having this conversation.
Skepticism tinged the discourse when A&M made the famous “100-year decision”: How, after a mostly pedestrian tenure in the Big 12, would the Aggies compete with the big, bad SEC teams? Well, the magical 2012 season, in which they beat No. 1 Alabama, Johnny Manziel won the Heisman and Sumlin signed a top-10 class, immediately squashed those thoughts. Suddenly, they were a factor. Recruiting picked up, donations skyrocketed, facilities projects sprouted and A&M capitalized on the moment. Now, after Manziel left, the on-field success tapered off, but the Aggies are on the rise again. I would argue that, if A&M were still in the Big 12, it probably wouldn’t have been in a position to hire a national championship-winning coach with a record-breaking contract, as it did with Fisher in 2017.
Currently, the Aggies are in a great position because Fisher is on stable footing, recruiting is going well and expectations are high. If Texas is to return atop the Lone Star State food chain, it starts with Sarkisian winning games and signing highly ranked classes in succession (and, just as importantly, developing those players into draft picks). The Longhorns need to improve in the win column this year and continue doing so until they are contending for conference championships regularly again, like they did in the Brown era. Conference affiliation has some role (recruits pay attention to who produces draft picks, and the SEC has lapped the Big 12 in this area), but not nearly as much as winning does.
Is Clayton Tune the right QB who’ll make Houston compete for the AAC title? Will Dana Holgorsen look at the grad transfer market? Can anyone internally push him? — Walker A.
I’ll take these in reverse order. Nobody internally at this point is pushing Tune. When I visited with the Cougars after spring practice, it was made clear to me that neither redshirt freshman Sofian Massoud or true freshman Maddox Kopp are ready to do that. If the Cougars had to play a game tomorrow, the backup quarterback would likely be Ike Ogbogu, because offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson can trust the fifth-year walk-on to run the offense well. Massoud’s spring was described to me as “up and down,” and he needs to become more steady.
The Cougars are high on Kopp eventually becoming the guy. The 6-foot-6 three-star recruit from Houston’s St. Thomas High is still figuring things out, but his last two practices of spring were his best. “His ceiling is high,” Dawson said. “Once he gets it all mentally and his body catches up with his frame, he’s going to be a really, really good player.”
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Holgorsen would gladly take a transfer quarterback, but not to supplant Tune. If the Cougars took one, it would be as a stop-gap backup while Massoud and Kopp continue developing, so that if Tune had to miss a game, they could feel comfortable with whom they put out there. But quarterbacks transfer so they can play, not so they can be the backup. Thus, finding such an option is difficult.
I don’t know if Tune is the quarterback to take Houston to conference championship contention. He flashes great potential. He has a nice arm, he’s a better runner than most give him credit for and he throws on the run well. He needs to take better care of the ball (he threw 19 interceptions to 26 touchdowns the last two seasons) and coaches feel he can be complacent at times because he’s not being pushed by his competitors daily.
Tune also needs help. Houston’s offensive line has been underwhelming, allowing quarterbacks to be pressured on 30.7 percent of dropbacks the last two seasons, which ranks seventh in the American according to TruMedia. It’s hard to be accurate when defensive linemen are in your face. If the line improves significantly and the upgraded skill talent around him performs as the Cougars hope, then I wouldn’t count Tune out. He has talent. Holgorsen believes in him.
I often hear about the Texas High School Coaches Association and how certain schools don’t like to send their players to specific colleges. How true is this, and how has it affected recruiting for coaches and schools as a whole? — Gabe, San Antonio
First, let’s distinguish the association from individual coaches. There are more than 1,400 football-playing high schools in Texas, and though most of them are members of the THSCA, not all of them are. The THSCA does have significant influence and isn’t afraid to use it, but in my 16 years of covering football in Texas, I’ve never once heard of an instance of the THSCA instructing its members not to do business with a specific in-state college coach. The organization, which is made up of current and former Texas high school football coaches, tries to have a good working relationship with all the Texas college coaches.
Individually, high school coaches are all different. Many of them are helpful to college coaches and have an open door when schools want to recruit, but that relationship can go awry for various reasons. For example, when colleges (whether in Texas or out of state) pull a scholarship offer from a prospect who has long been committed close to signing day, that has caused some high school coaches to shut out that college for as long as that coaching staff is there. Or if a player signs with a college and has a bad experience because the college coach was not up front, that information can trickle down to the high school coach and make him wary of dealing with that college in the future. And those high school coaches spread the word to their peers.
There used to be a time when high school coaches got upset when Texas colleges took commitments from out-of-state prospects over comparable Texas recruits, but recruiting has become so national that I don’t hear that complaint much anymore.
Also, when college coaches recruit the same parts of the state for extended periods of time, it’s easy to build a long-term relationship with the high school coaches there. College assistants are usually assigned regions to monitor so that they can build those relationships. When they sign a player from a high school and he turns out to be successful and has a good experience, the college is likely to go back to that high school and the high school coach is likely to help that college again. That familiarity could be the difference between a borderline prospect getting an offer, because the college coach knows he can trust that high school coach’s on-field and off-field evaluation.
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The THSCA is also a big believer in the concept it dubbed “straight line recruiting,” meaning that it’s the association’s preference that college coaches go through the high school coach, rather than directly to the prospect or through a personal trainer or 7-on-7 coach, to recruit. This is a recent initiative in an effort to minimize influence from trainers and 7-on-7 coaches, which the THSCA deems a threat. I wrote about this tension three years ago after Texas A&M’s Fisher met with Katy coach Gary Joseph and FAST Houston 7-on-7 coach Ro Simon Jr. during his first day on the job. It ruffled a lot of feathers initially, but ultimately, it hasn’t significantly impacted the Aggies’ recruiting of the state. Fisher is still signing top-10 classes and plenty of high-level Texas recruits.
Bottom line, there are instances in which high school coaches attempt to shut out certain colleges, but it’s usually on a case-by-case basis and there’s usually some history behind it.
Let’s talk Mean Green. Between Austin Aune and transfer Jace Ruder, who do you like for the QB1 heading into the season opener? — Cole, Argyle, Texas
It’s a toss-up at the moment. Aune, who started three games and played eight for North Texas last year, has the edge right now because he’s on campus and knows the offense. Ruder just graduated from North Carolina and will soon arrive at UNT.
Aune showed himself to be capable, throwing for 13 touchdowns to just four interceptions last season and averaging 8.9 yards per pass attempt, tops in Conference USA. His touchdown total could have been higher if not for five end zone drops last season, third-most in the country, according to Pro Football Focus.
His completion rate (54.6 percent) could be better but, again, drops play into that (North Texas had a league-high 29 drops last season, according to TruMedia). Aune, a 27-year-old who was a New York Yankees second-round pick, is a capable quarterback who progressed well during spring and drew positive reviews from coach Seth Littrell.
But if Littrell perceived Aune as the unquestioned starter, he wouldn’t have taken Ruder. The former Tar Heels QB was a four-star recruit and the No. 1 prospect from Kansas in the 2018 recruiting class, but has seen sparse playing time in Chapel Hill, appearing in six games over three seasons (one of which was disrupted by a season-ending injury). Ruder wants to play and will compete for the starting job once on campus.
He’s a dual-threat with a lot of talent, but he’ll have to pick up the offense quickly and start getting reps with the receivers during summer 7-on-7 work so that he’s ready to compete come training camp.
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I wouldn’t rule out Littrell playing both quarterbacks since he did that last season, with Aune and Jason Bean, who transferred to Kansas. If I had to guess today, I lean toward Aune starting the opener.
Why has Rice football been unable to compete within Conference USA? At first glance, one would assume the school’s academic factors limit its recruiting, however, programs like Stanford and Northwestern — and even Virginia and Duke recently — have shown that this is an obstacle that can be overcome. Likewise, it seems Rice should be able to recruit nationally the same academically inclined students as the aforementioned schools and is also located in a major city. Is it the size of the school? Lack of commitment from the administration? Having to fend off Texas for top academic in-state athletes? All of the above? — Nick A., Kalamazoo, Mich.
Some of the factors you mention play a role. The size of the school matters (it had a fall 2020 enrollment of 7,536, making it one of the smallest among FBS programs) while Stanford’s enrollment is more than twice that (18,623) and Northwestern’s is almost three times as much (22,605).
The addition of Texas State and UTSA to the FBS in the last decade hasn’t helped. Those schools affect Rice’s recruiting pool more than the Longhorns, who will usually recruit four- and five-star prospects who Rice has difficulty competing for.
The biggest reason, at least in this century, has been lack of commitment from administration. I recall visiting Rice practice more than a decade ago in the middle of the David Bailiff era, and the locker room and weight room were outdated, far behind most of its conference counterparts. Rice Stadium, as historic as it is (it once held a Super Bowl!), showed its age.
However, in the last five years, Rice football has seen increased administrative and donor support. In 2016, it opened a $33 million football-only operations building, the Patterson Center. It’s 60,000 square feet, and it’s pristine. It’s something even Rice’s crosstown rival, Houston, doesn’t have yet.
Rice also recently constructed an indoor practice bubble in the stadium parking lot, which would have been a far-fetched idea 10 years ago. Head coach Mike Bloomgren told me they raised the money in just two months. Bloomgren also noted that the university has significantly increased the football program’s recruiting budget, giving it the resources it needs to recruit nationwide (which, given Rice’s high academic profile, is a must).
And under Bloomgren, the former Stanford offensive coordinator who is entering his fourth year as the Owls’ coach, Rice is making positive on-field progress. The Owls’ 20-0 win against Marshall last season was their first win over a ranked team since 1997 and first shutout of a ranked team since 1960. They were competitive in every game (all three losses were by 10 points or fewer), which hasn’t been the case for a while.
Spending seven years at Stanford, Bloomgren knows what is necessary to win in football at an academic powerhouse. It has taken time and patience, but the Owls are moving in the right direction.
(Illustration: Wes McCabe / The Athletic)
