Hudson Card, Haynes King, Preston Stone or another QB? Ranking Texas’ 12 FBS programs: Ask the Texpert

AUSTIN, TX - APRIL 24: University of Texas Long Horns quarterback Hudson Card (1) throws the ball during the spring football game on April 24, 2021, at Darrell K Royal - Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, TX. (Photo by Adam Davis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
By Sam Khan Jr.
Jul 2, 2021

Whew, what a June.

The unprecedented rush of recruits to campuses after the long dead period created a 28-day sprint that, while hectic for prospects and schools, did not disappoint. Baylor, Texas, Texas A&M and Texas Tech all had big months, with each picking up at least four commitments. SMU had three and picked up a fourth Thursday, while TCU and UTSA also scored June trios.

Advertisement

And just as the recruiting push eased, Thursday brought a monumental shift in college sports. Athletes, for the first time, were able to profit from their name, image and likeness. Texas college football players quickly took advantage: Longhorns defensive standouts DeMarvion Overshown and Josh Thompson have deals with apparel company Last Stand Hats. Texas A&M safety Leon O’Neal is doing social media shoutouts on Jenloop, and UT running back Bijan Robinson and Aggies defensive lineman Shemar Turner are doing Cameos. That’s just a fraction of the action, as athletes across the country are diving into this new world of college athletics.

And though there’s much off the field to discuss, on-field action is around the corner. There’s only a month until training camps begin. The season beckons, and so do your questions. Let’s get to ’em.

(Note: Submitted questions are lightly edited for clarity and length.)

As the resident Texpert, can we count on you to start your own weekly rankings of the 12 FBS teams in our great state? And in the interest of keeping us junkies satiated during the summer doldrums, can we get a way-too-early State of Texas offseason ranking? — Louis S., born and raised in ATX 78757

Weekly state rankings immediately came to my mind when I started this job. So barring unforeseen circumstances, look for them this season. Training camps are only a month away, so it’s not really way-too-early anymore, but here’s how I see the 12 teams at this point:

1. Texas A&M
2. TCU
3. Texas
4. SMU
5. Texas Tech
6. Baylor
7. Houston
8. UTSA
9. Texas State
10. North Texas
11. Rice
12. UTEP

The top spot is easy; the Aggies are the best of the bunch today. Although TCU went 6-4 last year, I have the Horned Frogs second because of how much offensive skill they return and how they finished, winning five of their final six. Also, until Texas starts beating TCU consistently (the Longhorns have lost six of the past seven to the Frogs), it’s hard for me to put the Horns higher.

Advertisement

With star wide receiver Reggie Roberson returning and the addition of Oklahoma transfers Tanner Mordecai and Grant Calcaterra, SMU looks like a conference title contender in the American. Texas Tech and Baylor should be improved after making offensive coordinator changes and addressing key needs through the transfer portal.

Houston must be much better offensively, particularly on the offensive line, but it has a ton of talent on defense. UTSA and Texas State are intriguing; Jeff Traylor has the Roadrunners looking like a potential Conference USA title contender, and Jake Spavital remade the Bobcats roster via the transfer portal.

Considering age, potential, results, etc., if you had to take one current college quarterback in the state of Texas for the next two to three years, who are you taking? — Trey C.

This is a great question because there’s no clear-cut answer. So many teams in the state lost experienced, veteran quarterbacks, so the current crop of up-and-comers is largely unproven.

With two or three years to work with, I’m going to skew my pick toward the younger guys as opposed to upperclassmen such as Max Duggan (TCU), Tyler Shough (Texas Tech) or Mordecai. Here are the top candidates I would consider:

Hudson Card, Texas: The redshirt freshman is gifted. He has exceptional arm strength, he’s accurate, and he throws well off-balance or on the move. He’s a great athlete who starred at wide receiver for Lake Travis High as a sophomore before moving to quarterback as a junior. Card is oozing potential. He’s in a coin-flip battle with junior Casey Thompson for the starting job.

Haynes King, Texas A&M: King is fleet-footed (an A&M staffer told me he clocked in under 4.5 seconds in the 40-yard dash during testing this spring), but coach Jimbo Fisher will tell you not to categorize him simply as a runner. King can sling it, too. The redshirt freshman is tough physically and mentally, he’s sharp, and teammates gravitate toward him. He has to beat out Zach Calzada for the job, but King is in a good position entering the season.

Advertisement

Preston Stone, SMU: Stone was the highest-ranked recruit to sign with a Group of 5 program last year. Offensive coordinator Garrett Riley told me Stone is mature for a true freshman and doesn’t get rattled. The Ponies are high on Stone’s ceiling. He’s competing with Mordecai and junior Derek Green for the starting job.

Behren Morton, Texas Tech: I got a glimpse of Morton during a trip to Lubbock this spring, and he’s definitely the quarterback of the future there. His talent is evident, he has a great work ethic, and offensive coordinator Sonny Cumbie said he has leadership qualities that other players follow. Shough or Henry Colombi is more likely to start this year, but Morton’s time will eventually come.

Luke McCaffrey, Rice: The third-year sophomore is probably the best pure runner of this group. McCaffrey averaged 6 yards per carry in two seasons at Nebraska; the Huskers occasionally lined him up at running back, and he looked good doing it. He’s not the passer that these others are, though.

Kyron Drones, Baylor: Of all the players mentioned, Drones intrigues me the most. He’s big, strong, mobile and a winner. Multiple Baylor coaches have used the word “freak” when describing his ability. But, like Morton, I don’t think he’ll play much this year as a true freshman. Gerry Bohanon, Jacob Zeno and Blake Shapen seem more likely to win the job.

These players are all superb talents. It comes down to Card or King because they are the most likely to start this year (McCaffrey could also be a Day 1 starter). Both are coached by proven developers of elite passers. King has a deeper supporting cast, but Card is the better talent with a higher ceiling. So I’ll take Card.

What early-season games for Texas schools do you consider ripe for upsets? — Timothy S.

Here are three games I would keep a close eye on:

Texas vs. Louisiana, Sept. 4: The Longhorns are going to have their hands full with the Ragin’ Cajuns. Louisiana returns 19 starters from a team that went 10-1 and finished 15th in the Associated Press poll last season. Billy Napier’s team has won 21 of its past 24 games, including a 17-point win against an eventual top-10 team (Iowa State) in 2020. Meanwhile, Texas is breaking in a new coach in Steve Sarkisian, along with new coordinators, new schemes and a new quarterback.

Advertisement

Baylor at Texas State, Sept. 4: Although Texas State went a meager 2-10 last year, the Bobcats were competitive early against better teams. Their first three losses (SMU, UTSA, Boston College) came by a combined 13 points. The Bobcats have hit the transfer portal harder than anyone this offseason, bringing in 15 FBS transfers, two from the FCS ranks and four from junior colleges, to upgrade the roster. Plus, they return starting quarterback Brady McBride. Baylor, which returns 10 of 11 defensive starters, is installing a new offense with the arrival of former BYU offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes, will have a new starter at quarterback and is shaky on the offensive line.

Houston at Rice, Sept. 11: The Cougars have historically dominated this crosstown rivalry, but Rice is improving under Mike Bloomgren. The Owls allowed only 18.8 points per game last season, return eight starters from that group and added a junior college transfer linebacker in Desmyn Baker, who could make a big impact. Offensively, the addition of McCaffrey could make Rice difficult to deal with offensively because of his pure athleticism.

Who is the next current Texas high school football coach to make the jump to Division I football in a significant role (head or assistant coach)? — Peyton C.

There’s no shortage of candidates, but Southlake Carroll coach Riley Dodge sticks out.

He has already spent time on college staffs as a graduate assistant at Texas A&M and a quality control coach at Texas, and he took one of the most high-profile high school jobs in the country at 29, with no head coaching experience. In just three seasons, he’s led the Dragons to a state championship game appearance in the state’s highest classification. Southlake Carroll lost that game to Austin Westlake, coached by Todd Dodge, Riley’s father, who once took Carroll to an unprecedented 79-1 run in the mid-2000s, winning four state championships in that span (one of which was quarterbacked by Riley).

I don’t know Riley’s career aspirations or how quickly — if at all — he wants to jump to the college ranks. But at the ripe age of 32, with his pedigree (state champion Texas high school quarterback, former college quarterback and receiver with college coaching experience, son of a Texas high school football coaching legend), Riley checks a lot of boxes.

How much did Sam Houston’s national championship win elevate the school and its ability to recruit not only Texas high school prospects, but those from the NCAA transfer portal? — Jason P., Houston

The Bearkats are already doing a good job of attracting transfers. Their star receiver/returner this spring season, Jequez Ezzard, transferred from Howard. Their starting left tackle, Eleasah Anderson, transferred from Baylor. Anderson was one of 10 players on the Sam Houston State roster originally at FBS programs.

But it works both ways. The better a program is and the more talent it attracts, the more likely it is that FBS programs eye its roster for potential additions. After quarterback Bailey Zappe at Houston Baptist put up gargantuan numbers in the fall (including a 567-yard, four-touchdown performance against Texas Tech in September), he transferred to Western Kentucky (along with his offensive coordinator at HBU, Zach Kittley). I’m sure there were FBS coaches who saw what Ezzard did this spring and wondered whether he wanted to move up to their level. (For the record, Ezzard said if FBS programs wanted him, he “wouldn’t be interested.”)

Advertisement

Sam Houston State is close enough to Houston (a little more than an hour north) that it is a perfect spot for bounce-back prospects who might leave H-Town for an FBS program but find it wasn’t the right fit. Group of 5 programs like Houston and SMU also try to attract such players in the portal. Whether in recruiting or the transfer market, winning always helps.

I’m a Notre Dame alum from Chicago who is relocating to Austin to be closer to my wife’s family. What can I expect when I walk around wearing all of my Irish gear in Longhorns country (and other parts of the state)? — Jimmy W.

I wouldn’t expect too much ribbing from the locals. For starters, Texas’ on-field struggles of the past decade don’t leave Longhorns fans much to brag about, especially compared with Notre Dame, which has played for a national championship and appeared in the College Football Playoff in that span.

Second, Austin is a big city that has grown rapidly in the past decade (the population grew 30 percent from 2010 to 2019, according to Bloomberg), and transplants from other states account for much of the recent growth, so you can bet plenty of non-Texas graduates live there.

Lastly, college football fans in Texas are generally hospitable. Sure, there are a few knuckleheads everywhere (usually of the heavily inebriated variety), but in my experience covering colleges in the state, the locals are usually welcoming to opposing fans. So rep the Fighting Irish to your heart’s content.

(Photo of Card: Adam Davis / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Get all-access to exclusive stories.

Subscribe to The Athletic for in-depth coverage of your favorite players, teams, leagues and clubs. Try a week on us.

Sam Khan Jr.

Sam Khan Jr. is a senior writer for The Athletic covering college football and recruiting primarily in Texas. Previously, he spent eight years covering college sports at ESPN.com and seven years as a sports reporter at the Houston Chronicle. A native Houstonian, Sam graduated from the University of Houston. Follow Sam on Twitter @skhanjr