TEXAS — As Texas Democrats continue their quorum-blocking mission in Washington, D.C., and garner national attention for what they're calling their fight to protect voting rights, Republicans back home in the Lone Star State continue to crowd the candidate field in a number of important 2022 statewide races.
Texans will have several important statewide positions to decide when they go to the polls on Nov. 8, 2022. At the top of the ballot will be the governor’s race, followed by lieutenant governor, attorney general, comptroller, and commissioners of the General Land Office, the Department of Agriculture and one spot on the Texas Railroad Commission.
November may seem like a long way away, but Texas Republicans haven’t wasted any time getting in the game.
Gov. Greg Abbott will face at least two challengers in the Republican primary, including former State Sen. Don Huffines and the former chairman of the Texas Republican Party, Allen West.
Land Commissioner George P. Bush has declared his intention to unseat Ken Paxton for attorney general. So has Texas Supreme Court Justice Eva Guzman.
Three Republicans have stepped into the Land Commissioner race, and Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller will be defending his seat against at least one Republican challenger, State Rep. James White, the only Black Republican in the Legislature, who said he’s the candidate “to steer this crucial agency back in the right direction.”
So far, only the attorney general and the lieutenant governor’s races have Democrats wading in. Civil rights lawyer Lee Merritt and former Galveston mayor and attorney Joe Jaworski will compete for the Democratic nomination to unseat Paxton. Democrat Mike Collier will again try to unseat Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick after losing to him by less than five points in 2018.
So far, just two statewide races with Democrats amongst a slew of Republicans. So, why are there so few Democrats jumping in?
Primaries for 2022 might not be until March, but It’s not too early to be thinking about these races, said Sonia Van Meter, a managing partner at Stanford Campaigns in Austin.
But potential candidates are waiting for the lines to be drawn on both sides before declaring, she said.
"It's an issue of not wanting to have a false start. Once you announce, you're in,” Van Meter said.
In 2020, national Democrats looked to Texas with hope and helped raise money for State House races they thought could be flipped to take control of the chamber in Austin. The goal was to have Democrats steering the wheel when redistricting maps were drawn in 2021.
The Democrats didn’t lose any seats, but they didn’t pick up any either.
That election came on the heels of 2018 when Texas Democrats flipped 12 seats in the State House and former congressman Beto O’Rourke came within 2.5 percentage points of beating Republican Sen. Ted Cruz.
While 2020 may have been a disappointment after 2018, the Democrats’ position needs to be put into perspective, Van Meter said.
"Texas Democrats have spent the last 20 years trying to build up infrastructure in a state where everyone believes that it's not possible to elect a Democrat,” she said.
More and more Democratic candidates have entered local and state races in recent years after decades of election cycles when there would often be no opposition challengers to the Republican candidates.
Democrats’ momentum in 2020 continued with increased registration and voter turnout, she said.
“It just so happened that so did the Republicans,” Van Meter said.
The fact that Donald Trump was on the ballot proved to be a huge motivator for Republicans who previously weren’t registered to get to the polls.
Trump isn't on the 2022 ballot, so “the thing that motivated so many new Republican voters to turn out will not be there,” and that creates “a lot of room for optimism given the inroads that the Democrat operatives have been making in the state in the last five to 10 years," Van Meter said.
Overshading many decisions from potential candidates is the fact that Texas Democrats likely are stuck in a “waiting for Beto” standstill.
O’Rourke has said he is focused on the fight to protect voting rights and hasn’t made a decision on whether he will enter the gubernatorial or any other race in 2022. He has been, instead, spending his time crisscrossing the state, holding rallies and marches to drum up support for national legislation that would block Republican efforts to restrict voting laws.
The El Paso native effectively leads the Texas Democratic Party and “if Beto wants the gubernatorial bid it's his, and, until he makes a decision, no one is going to publically talk about it,” said Mark Jones, a Baker Institute Fellow in Political Science at Rice University. “It’s Beto’s race to turn down.”
If O’Rourke doesn’t run for office this year, he still remains a key component for the Texas Democrats, for whom he can raise money using his national spotlight.
"Beto is an incredible Democratic force in this state even when he hasn't won,” Van Meter said. “So it makes sense that people are waiting to see what he does before throwing their hat in the ring."
The Texas House Democrats’ fight against a Republican-led elections bill has given momentum and national attention to the party and many of its players. The Democrats have an opportunity to capitalize on that ahead of 2022, particularly as midterm elections tend to be a challenge for the party in the White House.
"With the Texas Democratic delegation being in D.C. right now to break quorum, they have more than enough to campaign here in Texas on without having to tie in what's happening in Washington,” Van Meter said.
“I think the sooner they solidify and broadcast that message, the better things will be for Texas Democrats,” she said.
Republican candidates who have said they are entering the 2022 races have traditionally had more to worry about in their typically-crowded primaries. Democrat primaries tend to be narrower fields with fewer candidates, sometimes only one for a down-ballot race.
Primaries this year could be delayed because of the late release of the census data that will be the basis from which the Texas Legislature will draw up its redistricting map. Candidates have until December to file with the Texas Secretary of State. Primaries are tentatively scheduled for March 2022.
Democrats are likely to see more chances for a serious challenge in the lieutenant governor and attorney general races, and less opportunity in the governor’s race. Abbott is seeking a third term with an endorsement from Trump, steady approval ratings and a $55 million war chest.
Some analysts see Paxton and Patrick as potentially vulnerable. Paxton is under indictment and stands accused of multiple felonies. Some Republicans have accused Patrick of failing to lead in this year’s legislative session.
Patrick declared his campaign for reelection, promising that the Republicans would “crush” the Democrats again in 2020.
“Democrats are bragging again that they are going to turn Texas blue and I am not about to let that happen," said Patrick, lieutenant governor since 2014, in a video in June announcing that he would seek reelection.
When the Democrats do enter the races, will there be as much momentum and financial support from the national party as before, or has hope started to fade that Texas can turn purple, let alone blue?
“It's already faded some,” Jones said. “National Democrats were promised in 2014 that Wendy Davis would defeat Abbott, and she lost by 20 points. National Democrats promised in 2020 that this was the year that Texas would flip and turn blue in the presidential race, and Trump won by 5.5 points.”
It’s possible that 2018 was “a high watermark for Democrats in that they had a perfect storm against the Republicans: an unpopular president in Donald Trump, a very popular senate candidate in Beto O'Rourke and Republicans, mostly, were caught asleep at the switch,” Jones said.
“Many national democrats may say, ‘Come back and talk to us in 2028,’” Jones said, referring to the election year before the next census numbers come out and redistricting becomes an issue again.