Even when the team was down over the past decade, expectations never seemed to be lowered. Wins are expected in Austin, no matter who the coach, or what outstanding circumstances are present.
Steve Sarkisian has been brought in to elevate Texas to where everyone expects them to be. Nearly eight months into the job, he will take the field for the first time against Louisiana on Sept. 4. It marks the first ranked matchup the Longhorns will have since 1984.
After some optimism earlier in the week, it’s time to take the pessimistic point of view. As they say, some things never change. The same could remain true for Texas’ 2021 season.
Although Sarkisian is considered a guru, there are plenty of potential pitfalls within the offense. Even things out of the head coaches’ control could affect the end of the season record.
On the defensive side, Pete Kwiatkowski is trying to replace the star of Chris Ash’s 2020 unit. Plenty of stars will perform on a weekly basis, but a significant amount of Texas’ production from last season is missing.
Here are five reasons Texas will have an unsuccessful 2021 season:
Lack of reliable receivers
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For the second consecutive season, nobody is quite sure who is going to be the leader at wide receiver. The position underwent a few changes. A couple of guys left for the NFL. Jake Smith transferred to USC. Brenden Schooler moved to the defense. True freshman Xavier Worthy is the most notable addition.
Heading into spring camp, the answer would have been Jordan Whittington or Troy Omeire. A couple of injuries later, and Texas is back to square one. Could it be Joshua Moore? He was the statistical leader last season but never had consistent performances.
With Hudson Card expected to be named the starter, he needs a true weapon to perform on a weekly basis. Best case scenario, it’s more than one guy stepping to the plate. Until proven on the field, nobody can be labeled as reliable.
Tough first half schedule
Aaron E. Martinez /Austin American-Statesman
One of our reasons Texas could have a successful 2021 season was the latter half of the schedule was on the lighter side. That’s mainly because the first six games of the season are brutal.
After kicking off against Lousiana, the nonconference portion of the schedule will wrap up with Arkansas (in Fayetteville) and Rice. Big 12 play opens at home against Texas Tech, quickly followed by TCU (Fort Worth), Oklahoma (Dallas) and Oklahoma State. Three of the toughest games of the season, all in the first half, all away from Austin.
Not only is the goal to head into Texas-Oklahoma with zero losses, but it is more of a need. Winning against Oklahoma State is a must as well, but we have been watching Texas for the past decade. I will not even mention the TCU record since 2012.
Disaster could strike early in the Sarkisian era.
Offensive line play
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As things stand, Texas’ offensive line is expected to be Christian Jones, Junior Angilau, Jake Majors, Denzel Okafor and Derek Kerstetter. The two guards are flip-flopping from last season, while Kerstetter returns to right tackle after a season spent at center. Jones is switching to left tackle, replacing Samuel Cosmi. Majors is the new kid on the block after starting the final two games of last season.
Kyle Flood has tinkered with the line all offseason. He is hoping he has found the correct five guys to protect the quarterback and create holes for Bijan Robinson. It was a unit that struggled last season (minus Cosmi), but, hopefully, most of the blame can be on Herb Hand. Flood’s coaching should elevate the group.
However, if the five cannot mesh well, Texas is going to be in a lot of trouble.
Replacing Joseph Ossai is?
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Joseph Ossai was the lifeblood of Texas’ pass rush last season, securing 5.5 sacks alongside 15.5 tackles for a loss. He is in the NFL but will be rehabbing a torn ACL and miss his rookie season.
Replacing him, most likely, is LSU transfer Ray Thornton. Ben Davis (Alabama) and Ovie Oghoufo (Notre Dame) were also brought in as potential replacements but should fit in as an X-backer on the other side of the line. Either way, all three are inexperienced pass-rushers late in their college careers.
Davis, Oghoufo and Thornton have a combined 6.5 sacks. Having someone physically replace Ossai at the jack position is one thing. One will have to put up similar numbers to have the Longhorns’ defense playing at an elite level.
Inexperienced quarterback play
Aaron E. Martinez /Austin American-Statesman
It feels weird to say struggles could come from the quarterback with Steve Sarkisian as the head coach. The rich history of quarterbacks having success under his guidance does not have a significant blunder. With Card reportedly being the guy, Texas is hoping the streak will continue.
However, being inexperienced in critical game situations is a major disadvantage. There is a reason quarterbacks who have been playing for two or three seasons succeed more often than underclassmen. Card will have to learn how to manage games on the fly.
His two appearances came in no-pressure situations against UTEP and Colorado. When the difference between winning and losing is Card making the right decision, can the redshirt freshman step up to the plate? Or will he need more game reps to come through. Time will tell.
