Introducing The Athletic’s Lone Star 12: A weekly ranking of Texas’ 12 FBS teams

Rejoice, for football season is finally upon us.

The long, busy offseason is complete. Saturday’s slate of Week Zero games served as a nice appetizer for the full plate of games on hand for Week 1.

In Texas, few things are as revered as football, and nothing sparks debate quite like a ranking. No state has as many FBS teams as Texas, so, why not rank them? In that spirit, here’s the debut of The Athletic’s Lone Star 12, a weekly ranking of the state’s 12 FBS teams throughout the 2021 season.

Only one team in the state, UTEP, has played a game; the rest kick off this weekend. So consider this the official preseason edition of our Texas state rankings:

1. Texas A&M (0-0)

This week’s opponent: vs. Kent State, 7 p.m. CT Saturday

No surprise here, the Aggies — who are ranked No. 6 in the country — top the first set of rankings. After a 9-1 season and a top-five finish in 2020, the outlook in Aggieland is bright. Their loaded defense should be even better than last season, which is saying a lot: The 317.3 yards per game they allowed was their lowest total since 2001.

Their returning offensive skill talent is substantial, but what will determine whether the Aggies can take a forward step is the play of their newly minted starting quarterback, Haynes King, and their offensive line, which returns an All-American in Kenyon Green but is replacing four other starters. King, a former four-star recruit, has immense ability, but how much of a learning curve will there be? Will the O-line, whose talent coach Jimbo Fisher is pleased with, jell well enough to play at a level that resembles the 2020 group? Will it all come together quickly enough for a monumental Week 6 clash with Alabama? Those are all questions to be answered in the coming weeks.

The result of A&M’s opener shouldn’t be in much doubt, but a Week 2 trip to Denver to play Colorado should at least provide some insight on these Aggies.

2. TCU (0-0)

This week’s opponent: vs. Duquesne, 7 p.m. CT Saturday

In Gary Patterson’s 20 years as TCU’s coach, the Horned Frogs have won double-digit games in a season 11 times. With the talent and experience on this roster, this year could be the 12th. So many key pieces are in place: a veteran quarterback (Max Duggan), a soon-to-be-star at running back (Zach Evans), a deep receiving corps, experienced offensive and defensive lines and two all-conference caliber cornerbacks (Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson and Noah Daniels).

The schedule sets up well, too. The Horned Frogs are at home the first four games of the season, including for their rivalry game with SMU and their Big 12 opener against Texas, a team they’ve beaten seven out of nine times since joining the conference. If TCU can start this season the way it finished the last (winning five of six games), it will be in a great spot to contend for a Big 12 title game berth.

3. Texas (0-0)

This week’s opponent: vs. No. 23 Louisiana, 3:30 p.m. CT Saturday

The All Gas No Brakes era is here. Steve Sarkisian makes his Longhorns debut against the Ragin’ Cajuns in what is likely to be a stiff test: Louisiana defeated eventual Big 12 runner-up Iowa State to open the 2020 season and coach Billy Napier returns most of his starters from a top-15 team.

Sarkisian made his first big decision over the weekend, choosing redshirt freshman Hudson Card as Texas’ starting quarterback. While attention has centered this offseason on the battle between Card and Casey Thompson, it’s running back Bijan Robinson who will be the centerpiece of the offense. If the former five-star recruit can produce at a rate similar to the one he did while getting limited touches a year ago, it bodes well for the No. 21 Longhorns.

It won’t take long to get a good feel for the Longhorns. After Louisiana, Texas travels to Fayetteville for an SEC road game versus Arkansas.

4. SMU (0-0)

This week’s opponent: vs. Abilene Christian, 6 p.m. CT Saturday

The Mustangs are a program on the rise, going a combined 17-6 in the last two seasons and crashing the Top 25 midway through each of them. The question this year is, can they finish? After starting 8-0 in 2019 and 5-0 in 2020, the Ponies got tripped up down the stretch.

The roster is the deepest it has been in the Sonny Dykes era, thanks to a combination of smart utilization of the transfer portal and improved high school recruiting. Oklahoma transfer Tanner Mordecai will succeed Shane Buechele at quarterback; Mordecai was named the starter by Dykes on Sunday. A former Sooners teammate of his, transfer tight end Grant Calcaterra, will be a huge weapon over the middle. The Ponies are stacked at receiver, but none are more important than Reggie Roberson. SMU hasn’t lost a game the last two years that Roberson has played (injuries cut each season short).

Keep an eye on the defensive progress under new coordinator Jim Leavitt. SMU needs more consistency there, and Dykes is betting on Leavitt to get it done.

5. Texas Tech (0-0)

This week’s opponent: vs. Houston at NRG Stadium, 6 p.m. CT Saturday

This is a critical season in Lubbock. The Red Raiders have logged consecutive four-win seasons to open the Matt Wells era, and they have gone five consecutive years without reaching .500. The Texas Tech faithful are antsy.

Wells hired a new offensive coordinator, Sonny Cumbie, who is quite familiar with West Texas, as he’s previously played and coached for the Red Raiders. Wells also made heavy use of the transfer portal to upgrade the roster, starting with former Oregon quarterback Tyler Shough, who was tabbed as the starter last week. Two offensive starters are recovering from spring injuries: receiver Erik Ezukanma and running back SaRodorick Thompson. Ezukanma has been practicing this month and looks poised to play; Thompson could be a game-time decision against the Cougars.

Texas Tech’s defense provides reason for optimism. The Red Raiders improved as a unit in Big 12 play last year and return most of their key players. They also brought in a pair of transfers in the secondary (Marquis Waters and Reggie Pearson) who should have an immediate impact.

6. Houston (0-0)

This week’s opponent: vs. Texas Tech at NRG Stadium, 6 p.m. CT Saturday

It’s fitting that the Cougars and Red Raiders are meeting to open the season because they are in such similar positions. Dana Holgorsen arrived with much fanfare in 2019, but results have been underwhelming. Year 1 (4-8) proved futile as he engaged in his grand redshirt experiment to age the roster; Year 2 (3-5) became a wash because of the pandemic’s impact. One of the most affected teams in the country, Houston had eight games rescheduled or canceled.

It’s put up or shut up time. The Cougars have a favorable schedule, an athletic, experienced defense led by a promising young coordinator (Doug Belk) and a multi-year starter at quarterback (Clayton Tune). Holgorsen has also raided the transfer portal to shore up key spots, particularly wide receiver and offensive line. On paper, the Cougars look improved; now it’s time to prove it.

7. Baylor (0-0)

This week’s opponent: at Texas State, 6 p.m. CT Saturday

Dave Aranda’s first season in Waco was trying. The pandemic affected every program, but it hit new coaches — who were still getting to know their players — the hardest. It took trial and a lot of error for Aranda, who feels more comfortable now that he’s had a full offseason and made offensive staff changes to align that unit with his preferred style.

The defense, which returns 10 starters, preseason All-Big 12 linebacker Terrel Bernard and added LSU nose tackle transfer Siaki “Apu” Ika, could be one of the Big 12’s better units. The offense, under new coordinator Jeff Grimes who arrived from BYU, can go only upward after a dismal 2020. The Bears tabbed Gerry Bohanon, the team’s backup the last two years, as the starting quarterback. The skill talent around him seems sufficient, the key unknown is whether the offensive line is up to snuff. It wasn’t a year ago, but with the addition of some transfers and the installation of a zone blocking scheme to fit Grimes’ offense, Baylor is hopeful for improvement.

8. UTSA (0-0)

This week’s opponent: at Illinois, 6:30 p.m. CT Saturday

The Roadrunners had a promising first season under Jeff Traylor, going 7-5 and finishing second in Conference USA’s West Division. They have 12 super seniors and two of their most important players, running back Sincere McCormick and safety Rashad Wisdom, are back. McCormick (1,467 yards) ranked as the nation’s second-leading rusher behind only Iowa State’s Breece Hall last year. Wisdom checked in as the second-leading tackler in C-USA, with 95.

All signs point to the Roadrunners being a serious contender in C-USA, especially if they can have better luck at quarterback. Last season, injuries hit the position hard, which contributed to four different players taking snaps. Three of them (Frank Harris, Lowell Narcisse and Josh Adkins) return.

The opener, a road game against a Power 5 team coming off a win, is an intriguing barometer for the Roadrunners.

9. Texas State (0-0)

This week’s opponent: vs. Baylor, 6 p.m. CT Saturday

Jake Spavital’s unconventional recruiting strategy of primarily taking players from the transfer portal became a well-worn, yet compelling offseason storyline. The Bobcats finished the 2021 cycle with 21 scholarship transfers and two high school signees. It was necessary because Spavital knows he needs to win sooner rather than later and adding 25 more high school players to a roster already heavy on freshmen and sophomores wasn’t going to help. Now, not only is the roster older, the talent level has been elevated.

One key factor helping the Bobcats: experience at quarterback. Brady McBride, who started eight games last year, returns after a solid 2020. Texas State lost four games by seven points or fewer last year. Can it start turning some of those close losses into wins?

10. North Texas (0-0)

This week’s opponent: vs. Northwestern State, 6:30 p.m. CT Saturday

After a pair of nine-win seasons in 2017 and 2018, the last two years in Denton have been disappointing, with the Mean Green winning just four in each. That makes this season important for Seth Littrell, who’s entering his sixth season at UNT.

Littrell has two new coordinators: Mike Bloesch, the co-offensive coordinator and offensive line coach in 2020, is now the primary play caller. Phil Bennett, who has more than 40 years of experience and has made recent stops at Arizona State and Baylor, oversees the defense. The Mean Green are also in the midst of a quarterback battle between returnee Austin Aune and North Carolina transfer Jace Ruder.

The schedule does the Mean Green no favors. After the opener, they go to SMU, then host 2020 C-USA champion UAB. An Oct. 9 road game at Missouri and an Oct. 23 home game versus Liberty are also on the slate. If North Texas is going to see an uptick in the win column, it will need to steal one or two of those tough games.

11. Rice (0-0)

This week’s opponent: at Arkansas, 1 p.m. CT Saturday

Last season, Rice showed signs of real progress. Though the Owls played only five games, going 2-3, they were competitive in all of them, which hasn’t always been the case on South Main. The highlight came in a shutout win against a ranked Marshall team, and the Owls went toe-to-toe with conference champion UAB.

Mike Bloomgren has a defense that is plenty capable of delivering more wins. The offense will be retooled after the hiring of new coordinator Marques Tuiasosopo and the arrival of Nebraska transfer quarterback Luke McCaffrey. Bloomgren was candid in revealing that, early in training camp, the defense still dominated the offense.

While the Owls appear good enough to make at least some noise in C-USA, they must navigate a challenging nonconference slate first. After the Razorbacks, Rice hosts Houston then travels to Austin to take on Texas.

12. UTEP (1-0)

Last week’s result: Won at New Mexico State, 30-3
This week’s opponent: vs. Bethune-Cookman, 8 p.m. CT Saturday

The lone Texas team to play in Week Zero, the Miners broke a three-game losing streak in the Battle of I-10 to reclaim the Brass Spittoon and Silver Spade trophies for the first time since 2016 (the rivalry wasn’t played last year because of the pandemic). Dana Dimel’s team looked sharp; the Miners jumped out to a 17-point first-quarter lead and suffocated the Aggies the rest of the way, holding them to just 190 offensive yards. Sophomore wide receiver Jacob Cowing, a second-team All-Conference USA pick in 2020, starred, catching five passes for a career-high 158 yards.

Saturday marked the first time in five years that the Miners have opened a season with a win against an FBS team. If they beat Bethune-Cookman this week, it’ll mark their first 2-0 start since 2005. That would be encouraging for a UTEP team that has just five total wins in the last three seasons. The Miners have a tough test Sept. 10 at Boise State, but they follow that with an off week and home games against New Mexico and Old Dominion. Could UTEP find its way to a 4-1 start? It doesn’t seem unreasonable.

(Photo of Zach Evans, left, and Max Duggan: Tim Heitman / USA Today)