The long wait has ended. Football is finally here. All 12 FBS teams in Texas will take the field this weekend. By the way, I ranked them all, so check that out if you haven’t already.
We have some compelling games, and y’all have plenty of questions, so let’s get to ’em.
Note: Submitted questions are edited for clarity and length.
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Hey Sam, are you two-plus wins over/under on any of the Lone Star teams’ Vegas totals? Which team do you think is most likely to overperform/underperform to this extent? — Will S.
First, let’s look at the over/under win totals for all the Texas teams, per BetMGM.
| Team | Win total |
|---|---|
3 | |
4 | |
4.5 | |
5 | |
5.5 | |
6 | |
6.5 | |
7.5 | |
8 | |
8 | |
8.5 | |
9.5 |
Most of these over/under totals appear pretty spot on, but the teams I feel most likely to approach two wins above their listed total are the winner of the Battle for the Iron Skillet (TCU or SMU), Texas Tech, North Texas and UTEP.
TCU has the potential for a 10-win season if it can beat SMU on Sept. 25. Oklahoma and Iowa State are the only opponents on TCU’s conference schedule that I view as likely losses. Conversely, an SMU win against TCU could be the key to another hot start for the Ponies, who started 8-0 in 2019 and 5-0 in 2020. TCU is the only team SMU faces in the first two months of the season that topped a .500 record last season.
Saturday’s Texas Tech-Houston game at NRG Stadium could be the launching pad for the winner. If Tech wins, it’s looking at a likely 3-0 start going into a Sept. 25 trip to Texas, a team the Red Raiders had on the ropes last year before collapsing in the final three minutes. Even a 3-1 start sets them up well go bowling, and there are enough coin-flip games on their conference schedule that I can see them getting to seven wins.
North Texas’ schedule is tough, but the Mean Green’s defense should be much better this season under new coordinator Phil Bennett. North Texas won four games last year with one of the worst defenses in the country; even a modest improvement should be enough to flip a pair of games in their favor.
After a season-opening win against rival New Mexico State, UTEP might be the most likely to outperform its win total. The Miners should have three wins by the end of September and still have home games against Louisiana Tech and Rice that are winnable.
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I enjoyed the Lone Star 12, thanks for spurring on that series. Could you also publish a sub-category: The Texas Blazing Saddle List? Obviously, Texas Tech coach Matt Wells is in the crosshairs of every coaching carousel pundit, but how much leash does Houston coach Dana Holgorsen have with board chairman Tilman Fertitta’s money? And will Rice be the Texas “Vanderbilt” and put coach Mike Bloomgren on notice that 7-23 doesn’t cut it even with the admissions challenges? — Keary H., Brooklyn, N.Y.
While I love the name, I’m sorry to say that there won’t be a Texas Blazing Saddle list, because coaching hot seat talk is one of my least favorite topics. But it’s an undeniable part of the sport, and there’s no doubt the seat is warming for some of the state’s coaches.
This is an important year for Wells. Texas Tech, at minimum, needs to go bowling. The Red Raiders have a deep, experienced defense and stocked up on transfers. It’s time to see positive results in Lubbock.
Seth Littrell needs a big year at North Texas. His name was a trendy one in coaching circles a couple of years ago after consecutive nine-win seasons in 2017 and 2018, but after back-to-back four-win seasons the last two years and a lot of coaching staff turnover in the process, the Mean Green need to stabilize with an above-.500 season.
With three years left on his contract, Holgorsen isn’t on the hot seat, but Houston really needs to make a big jump in the win column after going 7-13 his first two seasons. The schedule sets up well enough (no Cincinnati or UCF; SMU and Memphis are home games) that a nine-win season seems reasonable and should be the expectation.
Rice is typically more patient than others when it comes to coaching turnover, but it would be good for Bloomgren if the Owls went bowling, something they haven’t done since 2014. Last year, the Owls played only five games because the program was one of the most cautious in the country during the pandemic. Rice showed progress in those games, including a big win against Marshall. If Rice hovers around .500, I expect Bloomgren would be safe.
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Does Hudson Card give Texas a higher immediate ceiling than Casey Thompson? Also, does playing both QBs in the game, as Steve Sarkisian mentioned Monday, make sense for a program trying to establish an identity and win now? — Shane D.
Sarkisian sure believes that Card gives the Longhorns a higher ceiling because if he didn’t, he wouldn’t have given him the starting nod versus Louisiana.
As for playing both quarterbacks, I’m not a fan. I covered a similar situation before when Texas A&M did this with Kyle Allen and Kyler Murray in 2015, and it turned into a mess. Granted, that was in large part because Kevin Sumlin and his staff mismanaged it and failed to communicate effectively with their quarterbacks, but the bottom line is a coach doesn’t want his starting quarterback looking over his shoulder. Unless the backup quarterbacks’ series are specifically timed and scripted, there’s the risk of creating that doubt. Quarterback is as much a mental challenge as it is physical, and while competition is critical, so is confidence.
I’m curious how much Thompson will actually play. Sarkisian said during training camp that “I believe in having a starter and having a backup.” That leads me to believe that while Thompson will get snaps, they’ll likely be scripted, and it won’t be a true platoon. (Here’s a closer look at what to expect from Sark’s offense.)
How do you see the two intrastate matchups (Baylor-Texas State and Texas Tech-Houston) playing out this week? — Clayton R.
On paper, Texas Tech-Houston is the most evenly matched game in the state (Texas Tech is a one-point favorite).
The last time these teams played, in 2018, Texas Tech won 63-49. There won’t be nearly as many points scored this time. Although Holgorsen and Texas Tech offensive coordinator Sonny Cumbie are Air Raid disciples, this will be lower scoring than fans expect because both teams have deep, experienced defenses. I’m taking Texas Tech by a touchdown, 34-27.
Baylor is favored by 14 points against Texas State, but this game should be a little bit closer. Both teams are better than their 2020 records suggest (each won two games). Texas State has a talented returning starter at quarterback in Brady McBride and an infusion of experienced talent after coach Jake Spavital took 21 scholarship transfers this cycle.
Baylor’s defense should be stellar, but the Bears have a new offensive coordinator in Jeff Grimes, a new starting quarterback in Gerry Bohanon and an offensive line that needs to take a big leap forward from a year ago. Over the course of the season, Baylor will work out the kinks and operate smoothly, well enough to go bowling. But it will win this one ugly, 27-17.
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Sam, is the Big 12 using Fertitta as an excuse not to add Houston? The Big 12 being mad at Fertitta for calling out its sham expansion process in 2016 seems a bit overblown and hypocritical considering it’s doubling down on calling out ESPN for colluding against them. There’s nothing wrong with saying you think other schools are better than Houston and selecting those schools, but the Big 12 seems to be engaging in petty, pathetic and cowardly punching down. … What’s your take? — Louis S., Austin
There’s no doubt that Fertitta, the board of regents chairman whose name is on Houston’s basketball arena, left a bad impression with members of the conference in 2016. As a refresher, he went on local radio in Houston and called the expansion process “a sham.” He was still smarting a bit from Texas hiring Tom Herman, whom Fertitta tried hard to keep following the 2016 season.
Fertitta was not alone in his feelings. I spoke with multiple school officials at Houston who also felt that the Big 12 knew it wasn’t going to expand but put all 11 expansion candidates through a dog and pony show that cost time and money.
Regardless, the Big 12 holds the cards, at least in this case, and Houston wants in if the league chooses to expand, which seems more likely now that the Pac-12 is not expanding at this time and formed an alliance with the ACC and Big Ten. If the Big 12 is to survive, it has to add to its current eight members. Houston offers football success over the last 18 years, its athletics budget ($75 million) and a proven commitment to spend on athletics — from facilities to coaching salaries and anything in between. A quartet of BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF makes sense to me, and the Big 12 might decide its best to let go of its reluctance.
Howdy Sam! If the Big 12 manages to keep its Power 5 status after the UT/OU exit, shouldn’t the remaining teams (and any additions) be pretty optimistic about having an easier path to the Playoff? Sure, revenues will go down, but as long as there is an automatic qualifier, teams like TCU and Oklahoma State should feel pretty good they don’t have to go through the Sooners anymore. Thoughts? — Robert B.
Momentum on expansion slowed after Texas and Oklahoma made their moves to the SEC because commissioners in the other power conferences were caught off guard about SEC commissioner Greg Sankey’s role. He was one of four members on the College Football Playoff’s subcommittee on expansion while simultaneously making plans with the Longhorns and Sooners.
A new, expanded Big 12 needs the Playoff to expand in its originally proposed form, because it would virtually guarantee the league a spot as one of the highest-ranked six conference champions. So in that sense, if it ends up that way, yes, making the Playoff would be easier for teams like TCU and Oklahoma State.
Over or under 0.5 Heismans for Haynes King and Conner Weigman? — Rusty O.
I know why you asked this question. Weigman, the Aggies’ 2022 five-star quarterback commitment, went off in Bridgeland High’s season opener last week.
Weigman threw for four touchdowns, rushed for two more and caught a touchdown pass in a half. By game’s end, Weigman accounted for eight total touchdowns. Doing that in Class 6A, Texas’ highest classification, is impressive. Some might say his highlights resembled those of an A&M quarterback who won the Heisman Trophy in 2012.
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King, a former four-star recruit who just won the starting job, should shine this year. Texas A&M’s offensive ceiling is really high with King and the myriad playmakers around him. He’s a true dual-threat who is fast on his feet and throws a great ball. I have no doubts about his ability to lead the Aggies and succeed in Jimbo Fisher’s offense.
But a Heisman Trophy is tough to win. It means you have to be in the national championship hunt because voters traditionally favor players on the winningest teams. Are the Aggies going to be in such a position in the next five years? Maybe.
Fisher has coached a Heisman winner before, and it looks like he’ll be around for a while, thanks to his raise and contract extension. Maybe he’ll do it again. I’ll take the over.
(Photo of Texas Tech wide receiver Erik Ezukanma: Scott Sewell / USA Today)
