GOP aims to pick up one Texas Senate seat in new redistricting map
Philip Jankowski
Texas Republicans appear poised to gain a seat in the Texas Senate if the first draft of redistricting plans for the upper chamber is approved.
Experts say that state Sen. Beverly Powell, D-Fort Worth, would face a steep climb in holding onto her seat if the proposed map is approved with a revamped Senate District 10.
The map likely would move the Republican majority in the 31-seat chamber from 18 to 19 members.
District 10, under a redistricting plan proposed by Sen. Joan Huffman, R-Houston, would carve out Democratic portions of Fort Worth from the district and add swaths of more rural and reliably Republican areas southwest of Fort Worth.
“The proposed state Senate map is a direct assault on the voting rights of minority citizens in Senate District 10 and, if adopted, it would be an act of intentional discrimination," Powell said in a statement.
The district has changed party hands over the past decade, represented by Democrat Wendy Davis, then Republican Konni Burton, before Powell defeated Burton in 2018.
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The Legislature began the year's third special session Monday with a focus on redrawing districts for the Texas House and Senate, U.S. House and State Board of Education. Gov. Greg Abbott has called on lawmakers to address other items as well, such as limiting transgender student participation in school sports and barring vaccine mandates. However, the once-in-a-decade redrawing of Texas' state and federal legislative districts remains the session's main event.
University of Houston political science professor Brandon Rottinghaus said District 10 saw the most radical changes in the proposed map. Elsewhere, the map shores up some Republican-held seats that had become more competitive for Democrats.
"Republicans have aggressively reengineered Tarrant County and Dallas County and some of the surrounding areas," Rottinghaus said.
The proposed District 10 dilutes the growing number of Democrats in Tarrant County by dividing them among several districts. Meanwhile, more liberal-minded voters would be concentrated into Democratic Dallas County districts.
The map also gives Sen. Angela Paxton, R-McKinney, a little more breathing room in a district she won by fewer than 3 percentage points in 2018.
Huffman is leading the Senate's effort to draw new district lines. She drew a more favorable district for herself as well that should make District 17, which she narrowly won in 2018, a safer Republican seat, Rottinghaus said.
"Republicans have drawn a very nice map with the goal of ensuring that they have a floor of 18 seats for the next decade, barring some sort of significant political changes," said Mark Jones, a Rice University political scientist and senior research fellow at the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs.
Awaiting maps for Texas House, U.S. House
Proposed maps for the Texas House and Texas' 38 U.S. House seats have not yet been released. Huffman filed a draft map for the State Board of Education on Monday.
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The Republican in charge of redrawing Texas House maps, Rep. Todd Hunter, R-Corpus Christi, has given no indication of when those maps will be released.
Redrawing the state House map is more complicated because of geographical rules and the 150 districts.
Population growth over the past decade gave Texas two more U.S. House seats. Jones said Republicans could find safety in splitting the new seats between a Democrat and a Republican, but Jones said the GOP mapmakers likely would go for two.
"Texas Republicans are likely to be more risk-loving with the U.S. House seats than with the Texas Legislature seats because they're more focused on the goal of taking back the majority in the U.S. House in 2022 and less concerned about the overall success of those districts through the end of the decade because that doesn't directly affect power in Texas," Jones said.
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Troxclair collateral damage?
In the Austin area, the draft Texas Senate map splits Travis County among three districts instead of the current four districts. Sen. Sarah Eckhardt, D-Austin, would no longer represent Bastrop County.
Meanwhile, Sen. Donna Campbell, R-New Braunfels, would represent a larger swath of the Travis County, including the lake communities in western Travis County. Sen. Judith Zaffirini, D-Laredo, would continue to represent southeastern Travis County.
Pushed out of Travis County is Senate District 24, which would see major changes. Sen. Dawn Buckingham, R-Lakeway, who has represented District 24 since 2017, is not seeking reelection to run for land commissioner. Because of this, mapmakers likely felt more free to alter that district, Rottinghaus said.
But not without one possible casualty.
Former Austin City Council Member Ellen Troxclair declared her intention to run for Buckingham's seat shortly after Buckingham announced her bid for land commissioner. Troxclair might have been drawn out of the district. Reached via text message on Monday while campaigning in Bell County, Troxclair did not say whether she would meet residency requirements for the revamped district.
“This map is only the first draft of many and will be vetted and adjusted in the weeks to come," Troxclair said. "History proves that the only certain thing about the current map is that it will change.”
The bad news for Troxclair mounted Monday, with former state Sen. Pete Flores, a Pleasanton Republican, announcing a "comeback campaign" for the new district. The same day, Flores picked up Buckingham's endorsement.
Flores lost his 2020 reelection bid to Democratic Sen. Roland Gutierrez. But the draft map moved Flores to District 24.
“The opportunity to serve in the Texas Senate is an honor and a privilege," Flores said in a news release. "When the new redistricting lines were released on Saturday afternoon, it didn’t take long for the phone to start ringing."
His campaign did not respond to a message seeking comment.
Public hearings on the map have been scheduled for Friday and Saturday.