GOP mapmakers draw a new US. House district based in Austin

Philip Jankowski
Austin American-Statesman

Republican mapmakers have drawn a new U.S. House district based in Austin, a probably safe Democratic seat, one of two new districts awarded to Texas based on population increases over the past decade.  

The other new district is based in Houston and would favor Republican candidates.

Republicans took the safer approach, drawing district lines to shore up GOP-held districts that had become battlegrounds in recent elections as Texas' suburbs have become more diverse and more Democratic instead of trying to draw both new districts to favor Republican candidates.

"While this is still a pretty extreme gerrymander, it's not the partisan maximization gerrymander a lot of us thought Texas lawmakers might enact," said David Daley, a redistricting expert and fellow at FairVote. "It's certainly an aggressive incumbent protection gerrymander, and it certainly looks as if what lawmakers are trying to do is shore up Republican seats for the long haul."

More:GOP aims to pick up one Texas Senate seat in new redistricting map

The Legislature is focused on redrawing political boundaries with new census data. A preliminary map bases one of two new U.S. House districts in Austin.

The district lines in Texas will play an outsized roll in next year's midterm elections, when Republicans hope to win back a majority in the House.

The map was filed Monday by state Sen. Joan Huffman, R-Houston. Republicans control the Legislature and so are in charge of the decennial practice of redrawing district lines for the Texas House and Senate and Texas' 38 seats in the U.S. House, as well as the State Board of Education. GOP lawmakers have an opportunity to create district lines that could secure their hold on power in Texas for the next decade. 

Travis County

Much of heavily Democratic Austin — nearly all of the city west of Interstate 35 and parts of East and Northeast Austin — would become the 37th Congressional District. Travis County would be split into five districts, the same number as the current map, with the 21st Congressional District represented by Chip Roy, a Republican from Hays County, having a smaller slice of the county. The 25th Congressional District represented by Roger Williams, R-Austin, would no longer include any parts of Central Texas. It would remain dominated by Republican voters, however, encompassing all or part of 13 counties in North and West Texas.

Williams did not return a request for comment.

More:Texas launches audit of 2020 general election results in four major counties

"Instead of completely fragmenting Austin up as in the past, there's an effort to pack as many Democrats as possible into a single Austin district," said Mark Jones, a Rice University political science professor and senior research fellow at the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs.

Reps. John Carter, R-Round Rock, and Michael McCaul, R-Austin, would see their conservative electorate grow in the new map.

McCaul's revamped 10th Congressional District places a large swath of western Travis County, including more conservative-leaning communities such as Lakeway, Bee Cave and Lago Vista, in the same district as parts of College Station.

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Carter's 31st Congressional District stretches farther north in Huffman's proposal, excising the military community of Killeen but adding rural areas north of Fort Hood.

Heavily Democratic regions of East Austin and eastern Travis County, meanwhile, would remain in the 35th Congressional District, represented by Rep. Lloyd Doggett, D-Austin, which snakes along I-35 through San Marcos and New Braunfels and into San Antonio.

"Fearing voters, Republicans once again engage in extreme gerrymandering to carve up neighborhoods and communities of interest in Travis, Hays and Bexar Counties — aiming to dilute strong voices," Doggett said in a statement. "With lines shaped like snakes, tentacles, and dragons, parts of both Travis and Bexar are included in five different districts."

Voters of color

Jones said critics of the plan will be looking at the larger racial makeup of districts. According to a report released with the map, half of the proposed 38 districts would have voting age populations with white people in the majority. According to the 2020 census, people of color make up 60% of Texas' population.

Because of disparities in minority voter turnout, more than half of Texas' districts will be decided by white voters, he said.

"These districts are designed in such a way that minorities will only be able to be decisive in choosing maybe one-third of the districts," Jones said.

Activists with groups representing Hispanic people have argued that the maps should be drawn to reflect the state's rapidly growing Latino population. Latinos accounted for 50% of the nearly 4 million population increase over the past decade and are approaching non-Hispanic whites as the largest demographic group in Texas.

The new district in the Houston area pairs a western portion of Texas' largest city with suburbs to the north and west of the city. Election returns indicate that district would lean heavily Republican.

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According to analysis from PlanScore, former President Donald Trump won a majority of votes in 25 of the 38 districts. Only one district is considered competitive.

Renée Cross, a political expert at the University of Houston, said Republicans are pushing the envelope by not drawing a new majority Hispanic district.

"To not have one Hispanic opportunity district added, I think, was quite a stretch," Cross said. "I'm sure Republicans are getting ready for the onslaught, because whether it was going to be added in North Texas or another one added to the Harris County area, I think the numbers warranted that."

Daley said the map indicates that Republicans feel emboldened by a conservative-leaning judiciary and the fact that Texas will not have to clear the redistricting map with the Department of Justice before it is enacted, as the state was previously required to do until the Supreme Court overturned that portion of the Voting Rights Act of 1965 in 2013.

"These lawmakers drawing these maps appear unfazed by any concerns that courts will will overturn them," he said. "That might be an accurate read of where the judiciary stands on the Voting Rights Act right now."