Texas vs. TCU
When: 11:00 a.m. Saturday at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth
Records: Texas (3-1 overall, 1-0 Big 12); TCU (2-1, 0-0)
Last meeting: TCU defeated Texas 33-31 on Oct. 3, 2020, in Austin
TV: ABC
What’s at stake?
In Gary Patterson’s 20-year tenure at TCU, the Horned Frogs joined the Big 12 in 2012 and have had Texas’ number ever since. TCU has won seven of the nine all-time Big 12 encounters between these two programs, and six of the last seven.
Under a completely new administration with Steve Sarkisian at the helm, Texas won’t be too concerned with how previous encounters have played out — the Longhorns are simply looking to keep their momentum alive, prove themselves on the road and stay unbeaten in conference play.
When asked about how he has addressed Texas’ recent shortcoming against TCU with his players, Sarkisian was quite blunt and didn’t appear to be too concerned with how recent games have played out.
“We’re going to show up Saturday, 11 o’clock, kickoff, and play football,” he said.
When Texas has the ball
The Texas offense has been a high-octane machine ever since Casey Thompson was named the starting quarterback. Thompson has led the Longhorns to 15 touchdowns on their last 17 drives, as Texas put up 128 points on 1,259 yards of total offense against Rice and Texas Tech. But Thompson has done all that in the comfort of his home stadium, DKR, while being provided with all of the time in the world in the pocket.
In Fort Worth, Patterson’s front will look to negate that comfort, challenging Thompson off the edge with a variety of corner and nickel blitzes. Even so, the Big 12 Offensive Player of the Week and FBS leader in quarterback rating has been prepared for whatever has been thrown his way thus far, and has been forming a formidable connection with freshman receiver and emerging star Xavier Worthy.
It’ll be one thing for the Horned Frogs to take away the passing game, but it’ll be unlikely they stop the Texas ground game. TCU has had the second-worst run defense this season in terms of yards conceded, while Texas’ run game has been among the best in college football. As a team, Texas has found the end zone on the ground 15 times, the fifth most of any FBS team, and has racked up the sixth-most rushing yards of any program. Texas owes its early run game success to its star player, Bijan Robinson, who leads the Big 12 in rushing yards. Roschon Johnson has also been immense this season and leads the Big 12 in yards per carry.
When TCU has the ball
TCU hasn’t put up the gaudy offensive numbers that Texas has, but the Horned Frogs have a star running back of their own. A friend of Bijan Robinson’s dating back to high school, Zach Evans has emerged as a stud in TCU’s last two games. The once-No. 1 recruit in the nation didn’t feature much in Week 1, but racked up 190 yards against Cal in Week 2 and 113 yards against SMU last weekend. Evans hasn’t had as many carries as other star backs, but cracks the FBS top ten in yards per carry with a staggering 7.9.
TCU has had a solid degree of success through the air as well. Max Duggan has thrown for over 700 yards this season and seven touchdowns, with six of those scores finding a different target. Quentin Johnston and Taye Barber are among Duggan’s favorite targets, but JD Spielman, Darius Davis and Blair Conwright have all played a part in the receiving game so far for TCU.
Prediction
Unlike Patterson defenses of the past, TCU’s defense hasn’t been completely resolute — particularly against the run. With the momentum Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson have coming into Week 5, that could spell real trouble for the Horned Frogs. Look for Robinson to silence the Amon Carter Stadium on more than a few occasions, as the sophomore running back adds to his already impressive stat sheet. It will be interesting to see if Thompson can maintain his level of efficiency, as he makes his first start on the road in college football. But with some experience playing at Arkansas under his belt, and his character and poise, I think Thompson remains unfazed.
TCU could have some joy on offense however, particularly with Evans playing like he has been recently, and with Texas’ secondary looking weak against Arkansas and Texas Tech. Texas’ safeties Brenden Schooler and BJ Foster were scorched a few times against Tech last weekend, so the deep ball should be an option for Duggan and his deep crew of receivers. Despite that, I think Texas gets the job done in Fort Worth on Saturday, just perhaps much less comfortably than in weeks previous.
Score: Texas 42, TCU 32
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