Week 5 of college football for the FBS programs in the state of Texas is a mixed bag of matchups. Teams such as SMU and UTSA are expected to roll against inferior competition. Texas heads to Fort Worth to face a TCU program that the Longhorns consistently struggle to beat even when fielding a more talented squad. Baylor can back up its upset victory against Iowa State against another dark-horse Big 12 contender in Oklahoma State. And in a sign that the football season in 2021 will be a unique ride, Rice and UTEP are favored on the same week. 

North Texas and Texas State are idle in Week 5. Lines provided by Bovada. 

Houston at Tulsa, 6:30 p.m., ESPN (Friday)

Line: Houston +4.5, O/U 63

Overview: Gamblers clearly don’t respect the Houston Cougars following a shaky performance in a win over Navy. The Cougars go on the road as a 4.5-point underdog against a 1-3 Tulsa team that was solid in losses to Oklahoma State and Ohio State. Tulsa earned its first win of the season last week in a 41-34 victory over Arkansas State. The Cougars must slow down the passing attack led by quarterback Davis Brin, who threw for 365 yards and three touchdowns against Arkansas State. Houston has its own worries at quarterback with starter Clayton Tune not at 100 percent due to a hamstring injury. It is hard to trust this Houston team to go on the road and win against quality competition without a fully healthy Tune.  

Craven’s wager: Tulsa -4.5 

Texas at TCU, 11 a.m., ABC

Line: Texas -5, O/U 65.5

Overview: TCU is 7-2 against Texas since joining the Big 12. Horned Frogs head coach Gary Patterson seems to take extra pleasure in game planning for the Longhorns, and that’ll be especially true considering TCU is coming off a loss at home to SMU. In that loss, TCU allowed 350 yards rushing to the Mustangs. That’s not a good sign considering that the Longhorns field the best running back in college football with Bijan Robinson. Texas put up 70 points in last week’s win over Texas Tech. The Longhorns offense looks completely different with Casey Thompson at the helm. The TCU offense struggled to complete its deep shots against SMU but will need players such as Quentin Johnston to outduel a beatable Texas secondary. Until the Longhorns prove they can beat TCU in Fort Worth, the safe money is to back Patterson and the Horned Frogs. Neither defense is good so hammer the over. 

Craven’s wager: TCU +5, O 65.5

Texas Tech at West Virginia, 2:30 p.m., ESPN2

Line: Texas Tech +7, O/U 56

Overview: This feels like an important game for Texas Tech head coach Matt Wells. And I’m talking “save his job” type of important following a 70-35 loss at Texas. The blowout loss erased the momentum from a 3-0 start and cost the Red Raiders starting quarterback Tyler Shough to injury. Henry Colombi replaced Shough and threw for 324 yards and three touchdowns to just one interception on 17 of 23 passing. West Virginia nearly upset Oklahoma in Week 4 and the Mountaineers defense might be the best in the Big 12. Still, this feels like a must-win for the Wells regime and that should be enough motivation for Texas Tech to at least cover on the road. Expect a better effort from the Texas Tech defense. 

Craven’s wager: Texas Tech +7, U 56

SMU vs. South Florida, 3 p.m., ESPNU

Line: SMU -20.5, O/U 68

Overview: The Mustangs possess a versatile offense and an opportunistic defense. Both were on display in the 42-34 win at TCU last week as SMU planted its flag as the current power of the metroplex. The running back trio of Ulysses Bentley IV, Tre Siggers and Tyler Lavine helped the Pony Express rack up 350 rushing yards in the win. Starting quarterback Tanner Mordecai leads the FBS quarterbacks with 20 touchdown passes through four games. South Florida enters the game at 1-3 following an eight-point loss to BYU. After two emotional wins, I expect SMU to win, but not by three touchdowns. 

Craven’s wager: USF +21 (buy the hook)

UTSA vs. UNLV, 5 p.m., ESPN+

Line: UTSA -21, O/U 56.5

Overview: Is there a team at the G5 level with more momentum than Jeff Traylor’s Roadrunners? UTSA overcame a 21-point first-quarter deficit on the road against Memphis last week to secure the biggest win in program history. The same Roadrunners began the year with a road win over Illinois to provide the school with its second ever win over a Power Five program in school history. The running game is led by Sincere McCormick, who ran the ball 42 times for 184 yards and three touchdowns against Memphis. The Roadrunners defense doesn’t get enough respect as one of the top units in Conference USA. UNLV is 0-4. 

Craven’s wager: UTSA -21, U 56.5

Rice vs. Southern Miss, 5:30 p.m., ESPN3

Line: Rice -2.5, O/U 44.5

Overview: The Owls won their first game of the season last week in a victory over Texas Southern. Rice hosts another beatable team in Week 5 when a struggling Southern Miss program arrives in Houston. Jake Constantine became the third quarterback to start for Rice in four games this season in the win over Texas Southern. The senior completed 18 of his 23 passes for 271 yards and a touchdown. The issue for Rice against Texas Southern came defensively with the Owls allowing 34 points. There aren’t many winnable games on the Rice schedule, so this feels like an important game for the Owls. 

Craven’s wager: Rice -2.5

Texas A&M vs. Mississippi State, 6 p.m., SECN

Line: Texas A&M -7, O/U 46

Overview: Mike Leach returns to the state of Texas to take on a familiar opponent from his Big 12 days. Texas A&M hopes to heal its wounds against Mississippi State, which is more of a defensive team than an offensive juggernaut despite Leach’s influence. Texas A&M only scored 10 points in two of its previous three games, including the recent loss to Arkansas. The Aggies offensive line and quarterback play is hampering a program that started the 2021 season with hopes of reaching the College Football Playoff. With Alabama on the schedule next week, Jimbo Fisher’s program needs an impressive showing to build some confidence ahead of the biggest game of the season. 

Craven’s wager: Texas A&M -7

Baylor at Oklahoma State, 6 p.m., ESPN2

Line: Baylor +3.5, O/U 47.5

Overview: This is the game of the week for a Texas school for my money. Both programs are in relative similar situations. Both teams sport a solid defense. Both teams can run the ball behind a physical offensive line. And both teams are still trying to figure out how best to utilize the quarterback position. Baylor quarterback Gerry Bohanon was solid in the win over Iowa State. He’s attempted 89 passes in 2021 without an interception. Both teams sit at 4-0 and hope to establish dark-horse status in the Big 12 championship game with a win. The team that better protects its quarterback wins and I’m not sure there is a better offensive line in the Big 12 than the one at Baylor. 

Craven’s wager: Baylor +3.5, O 47.5

UTEP vs. Old Dominion, 8 p.m., ESPN+

Line: UTEP -5.5, O/U 48.5

Overview:  UTEP enters this game at 3-1 and with a real chance to reach six wins in 2021. To do that, the Miners must beat a dreadful Old Dominion squad that arrives in El Paso as a 5.5-point underdog. UTEP showed glimpses of a high-powered offense during the second half of its win over New Mexico. Quarterback Gavin Hardison has thrown for 948 yards through four games. His favorite target is wide receiver Jacob Cowing, who has caught 20 passes for 467 yards and four touchdowns so far in 2021. This game will show how well UTEP can handle success and being the favorite. Learning how to win consistently against teams you’re supposed to beat can be a challenge. 

Craven’s wager: UTEP -5.5