One of the most critical things any gambler can do is study their results objectively to find flaws in the process, or perhaps some advantages of which they weren't already aware. It's essential to be honest with yourself, and that's why I have accepted the fact that my numbers on Southern Miss are wrong. After losing on the Eagles for a second time this season, I've thrown them in the garbage bin, never to be heard from in this space again.
Of course, while being objective is fun, being immature and reactive is often better for your psychology. So that's why I'm mad at the weather in West Lafayette, Indiana, from last Saturday. The forecast for Minnesota-Purdue -- at the time of publish for last week's column -- called for a chance of light rain. Instead, we got rain and a lot of it. The kind of rain that ruins the over. We were on a good pace in the first half, but the weather limited the two teams to only 10 points in the second half, killing our over.
Instead of being 4-2 and accepting the errors I made in my two losses -- WTH, Oregon? -- I'm 3-3 because of some stupid clouds. Thanks for nothing, clouds! Anyway, this week's odds are via Caesars Sportsbook.
Games of the Week
No. 6 Oklahoma vs. No. 21 Texas: I swear, the total for this game is posted too high every season, and this year is no different. Now, that doesn't mean this game isn't capable of going crazy. Last year's game finished 53-45, but it needed four overtimes to get there. The score was only 31-31 when regulation ended and that 62 points is where this game typically ends. The total has dropped nearly two touchdowns from last season's meeting, but I still think it finishes under.
Oklahoma still has one of the best offenses in the country from a success rate standpoint, ranking third. The difference this season is that the explosiveness we've come to expect hasn't been there. That's made it more difficult for the Sooners to put up the kind of high scores we've grown accustomed to, and I see a similar situation playing out Saturday. I also see a Texas offense that has looked awesome against the likes of Louisiana, Rice and Texas Tech, but struggled to move the ball well against Arkansas and TCU. Both of those teams have good defenses, and both games were on the road. This game is at a neutral site, but Oklahoma's defense is in the same tier as Hogs and Frogs, so I don't see the Longhorns moving the ball at will. Oklahoma 31, Texas 28 | Under 63.5
No. 4 Penn State at No. 3 Iowa: I have not been shy with my critiques of the Iowa offense this season. It's a unit that by just about every measure -- be it a traditional stat or an advanced metric -- has been awful. When asked to drive the length of the field and score a touchdown, Iowa hasn't been able to do it consistently. However, it's been more successful after turnovers, which provided shorter fields. I also came away encouraged by what I saw from the Iowa offense against Maryland last week, as it was its best performance of the season.
Penn State's defense is better than Maryland's, but something else in this matchup concerns me. Quarterback Sean Clifford got off to a nice start and exceeded my expectations, but he looked shaky last week against Indiana, even though the Nittany Lions won 24-0. Now I'm being asked to trust him on the road in a tough environment against a defense that forces mistakes more than any other. I have to believe Clifford turns the ball over at least once, and in a game like this one, that might be all it takes. Iowa 21, Penn State 17 | Iowa -1.5
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Lock of the Week
UTSA at Western Kentucky: UTSA is the best team in Conference USA. It should not be an underdog to anybody in the conference that isn't Marshall right now, and this is a matchup I see the Roadrunners exploiting. The Hilltoppers rank second nationally with an offensive success rate of 51.4%, but that overall number lacks context. Much of the damage was done against Tennessee-Martin and Army.
The problem for WKU is that, as good as it's been offensive, it's been just as bad defensively. The Hilltoppers rank 121st in defensive success rate, while the Roadrunners rank 13th. That's what will make the difference in this game. It's hard to win when you don't get stops, and I don't see the Hilltoppers getting enough of them against this UTSA offense. UTSA 38, Western Kentucky 34 | UTSA +3.5
Home Dog of the Week
No. 9 Michigan at Nebraska: I'm not sold on Michigan yet. The unbeaten Wolverines climbed into the AP Top 10 after starting the season unranked, but they're simply too one-dimensional on offense. And that dimension has faded in recent weeks. The Wolverines rushed for 1,051 yards at 7.15 yards per carry in their first three games, but that average dropped to only 2.73 yards per carry against Rutgers and Wisconsin.
Now, they're going on the road for a second consecutive week to face Nebraska. The Cornhuskers might not be Wisconsin defensively, but they profile similarly to Rutgers. Plus, with Michigan presenting little threat in the passing game, the Huskers can load the box. Maybe Nebraska doesn't pull off the upset, but I have this one being close, so I'll gladly take the 3.5 points. Nebraska 24, Michigan 23 | Nebraska +3.5
Under of the Week
San Jose State at Colorado State: San Jose State was one of the bigger surprises last season, but 2021 has been a disaster. The Spartans rank 117th in offensive success rate and could be without starting QB Nick Starkel again this week. That's a big deal, but the good news is they're facing Colorado State, which somehow possesses an even worse offense that ranks 121st.
The math is pretty simple. Two offenses that can't score are going against decent defenses. That usually results in an ugly, low-scoring game. Colorado State 21, San Jose State 17 | Under 45
Over of the Week
Akron at Bowling Green: It's not time for mid-week MACtion just yet, but we could see some signs of it on Saturday. Neither offense is prolific, which is what's keeping this total down, but Akron's defense should be the cure to what's ailing Bowling Green. The Falcons should be able to put up at least 30, meaning I only need the Zips to get me 17 or so to push us past this total with ease. My numbers tell me that's well within the realm of possibilities here, so unless those same darned clouds are in Ohio this week, we're Gucci. Bowling Green 31, Akron 20 | Over 46
SportsLine Pick of the Week
No. 2 Georgia at No. 18 Auburn: Whoops! I ran out of room in The Six Pack, and there's another bet this weekend I love. If you want to know what it is, you can find it on my SportsLine page.
| Last Week | Season | |
|---|---|---|
Games of the Week | 2-0 | 8-2 |
Lock of the Week | 0-1 | 2-3 |
Overall | 3-3 | 17-13 |
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