Another compelling week of Group of 5 action and another sub .500 week with picks. We all knew Coastal Carolina vs. Appalachian State would be a great matchup. Not many thought the Mountaineers would get the job done. A three-point win for a four-point underdog. Arkansas State pushed Louisiana to the brink, but came up short with their upset bid. SMU took care of business with ease as the bottom continued to fall out from under the Green Wave. UTSA also continued to show that they are real and legitimate contenders for a conference title. San Diego State pulled off the upset over Air Force on the road and although Cincinnati won, it was probably the most unimpressive win of the season.
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A 2-4 week runs the season record to 17-29-1. As if I have not had enough issues picking winners, this week the difficulty is increased. Let’s look in the margins at games with a spread of three points or less. It just happens that not only can we find those this week, but they are compelling matchups with legitimate stakes. All the games have meaning in the standings, some are battles that will help recruiting, others are for legacy and bragging rights but all of them should be entertaining.
All odds from BetMGM, all times Eastern and all games are on Saturday.
North Texas at Rice -2.5, 2 p.m.
Back on Aug. 18 both teams were beaten handily. North Texas was on the short end of a 40-6 score against UAB. Rice took their lumps in a 58-0 loss to Texas. Since that game, Rice is 3-1 while North Texas has yet to taste victory again. Now the two teams meet as Rice tries to run its conference record to 3-1 and put itself in position to compete for a title, while North Texas just hopes to notch its first conference win.
The Owls are coming off an impressive victory over the same UAB team that blew out North Texas earlier in the season. That was a great bounce back game after their disappointing no show in a 45-0 beatdown at the hands of UTSA. So why is this line so close? The answer lies in production and competitiveness. While Rice has found a way to get three wins, North Texas has had the more prolific offense. The Mean Green average more passing yards and rushing yards than Rice. They also score more points per game than the Owls. Since that early season loss to UAB they have been in competitive games against Mizzou and Liberty. So is this the game that they put it all together? If this game is played 10 times these teams might split 5-5. Rice has not won back to back games against FBS competition this season, will they overlook a one-win team because they beat the team that beat North Texas? Less than a three-point favorite at home is usually an indicator that the oddsmakers think the road team is the better team.
Pick: North Texas will get its first conference win, 24-21
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Wyoming at San Jose State -3, 4 p.m.
This is a game between two evenly matched teams who probably believe they have underachieved this season. Wyoming is on a three-game losing streak after starting the season 4-0. All of its losses have been in conference play. San Jose State was able to get a road victory over UNLV to avoid a three-game slide of its own. The Spartans are 2-2 in the conference with their wins coming against teams with a combined record of 1-14. They did push a ranked San Diego State team to double overtime before losing.
Quarterback consistency has been an issue for both teams. Sean Chambers has struggled over the past three games for the Cowboys. He has two total touchdowns to four interceptions over that time. San Jose State’s Nick Nash has performed a little better, accounting for three total touchdowns and two interceptions. Neither have been accurate with the ball. Chambers is completing 40.5% of his passes in conference, while Nick Nash is only completing 51.8% of his passes.
So what will make the difference in this game? Both defenses are similar in their production, and both offenses are prone to turnovers. The tiebreaker seems to be that one quarterback is able to make more happen with his legs than the other. Factor in the home game environment and that could be the difference in the game. Both of these squads need a win to keep their hopes of bowl eligibility alive. At the end of the afternoon San Jose will be above .500 in the conference.
Pick: San Jose State covers 24-17
Boise State -2.5 at Colorado State, 7 p.m.
Colorado State comes home after a 1-1 road split that saw the Rams fall three points short of a victory over Utah State. They are 2-1 in the conference and they will look to get their overall record even when they welcome Boise State. The Broncos are coming off a bye week and they have had two weeks to get the taste of a bitter defeat to Air Force out of their system. A Week 9 win over the Rams will bring their conference and overall records even.
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Boise is a few bad possessions away from having a fantastic season. A four-point loss to UCF at the beginning of the season, a one-point loss to Oklahoma State, and close losses to Air Force and Nevada. The Achilles heel this season seems to be in the run defense where they have allowed 235 yards or more in four of their seven games this season. They have shown the ability to stop the run when they held BYU to 111 yards rushing in their 26-17 victory over the Cougars, but that has not been as consistent as they need it to be.
The question for the Rams is can they get a win over a quality opponent? Wins over New Mexico, Toledo and San Jose State will not strike fear into the hearts of opponents. The Broncos have two weeks to prepare for the Rams who were just in a tough battle with Utah State. Expect them to come out fast and hold off whatever charge Colorado State is able to muster.
Pick: Broncos win and cover 27-20
SMU at Houston -1, 7 p.m.
This is essentially a coin flip game according to the line. I would not be surprised to see this line flip a couple times before Saturday’s game. SMU is undefeated this season and Houston’s only loss this year came in the first game of the season against Texas Tech. Now both enter this contest looking to get a leg up in the conference standings. SMU is currently 3-0, while Houston is 4-0.
Houston has relied more on its defense this season. The Cougars are allowing less than 18 points per game and they are holding teams under 300 total yards of offense each contest. SMU has been leaning heavily on their offense. They average over 525 yards per game and score more than 42 points per game on average. While neither team has been bad on the opposite side of the football (Houston is scoring over 36 points per game and SMU is surrendering a little over 22 points per contest).
For SMU the success of the offense has been on the back of the passing game where Tanner Mordecai is putting up numbers reminiscent of the old EA Sports game on freshman level. The Houston defense has been as productive as SMU’s offense. Five players with 3.5 or more sacks lead a defense that has 28 total sacks. They have also been able to take the ball away. They have six interceptions and nine forced fumbles with seven recoveries. This defense is fast and brings the heat. The issue for matchups of an offense vs. a defense is that the defense has to be perfect every play. That is pressure because if they make a mistake the result could be a touchdown. A prolific offense only needs to be special a few plays, especially when they can strike from anywhere on the field.
Pick: SMU wins 37-31
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Virginia at BYU -2.5, 10:15 p.m.
This has the chance to be one of the most entertaining games of the weekend. Both teams have stubbed their toes a couple times this season but they are quality teams who will be factors down the stretch. This is also Virginia head coach Bronco Mendenhall’s return to Provo where he made a name for himself as the head coach of the Cougars. His Cavaliers have won four straight after losing two in a row. They have one of the best offenses in college football. They throw for more than 400 yards per game and still run for over 130 yards. They average 37.6 points per game. That will be a tough task for BYU to handle.
The Cougars have adopted a physical identity under current head coach Kalani Sitake. They play hard and they don’t quit. They run the ball well, which will be something that the Cavaliers will need to address but if there have been any teams that have given BYU problems, it is teams that are dynamic through the air. Virginia’s porous defense ensures that BYU will have opportunities. The question is will they be able to capitalize. Virginia definitely has more at stake in this game. The ACC is still up for grabs and bowl game selection is also a factor. Look for Virginia to make a few more plays on both sides of the ball.
Pick: Virginia wins a shootout 43-37
Fresno State at San Diego State -1
This is a competition between two teams that get it done in opposite ways offensively. Fresno State is a passing team. The Bulldogs average over 341 yards per game. Quarterback Jake Haener has thrown 22 touchdown passes this season. Meanwhile, San Diego State gets it done on the ground. The Aztecs average 207 yards per game rushing. Greg Bell leads a stable of five rushers who all have over 100 yards rushing on the season. Bell has 603 yards this season. The collective has 17 rushing touchdowns so far this season.
To know which team will impose their will, you need to understand which team’s defense is capable of stopping the opposing offense. The Aztecs have held opponents to 199.6 yards passing per game while the Bulldogs have held rushing attacks to an average of 118.8 yards per game. When it comes to stopping a passing attack there are several factors to consider. First is that a pass has three outcomes and two are bad. It could be complete, but it could also be incomplete and it could be picked off. With a rush it mostly comes down to whether or not you can stop it from gaining yards.
Betting on a rushing attack is definitely safer than betting on a passing attack. It is also difficult to give a team their first loss this late in a season. San Diego State will come into this game confident but not cocky. The Aztecs have a good chance to keep that zero going for another game.
Pick: SDSU wins and covers, 24-21
(Photo of Greg Bell: John Cordes / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images; The Athletic may receive an affiliate commission if you open an account with BetMGM through links contained in the above article.)
