While Virginia was getting drubbed by Navy on opening night, Houston was thisclose to getting upset by Hofstra.
The Cougars survived, getting a late three to push the game to OT, then beating the Pride, 83-76, ahead of having an easier time with Rice on Friday night, beating the cross-town rival, 79-46, mirroring UVA’s bounceback 73-52 win over Radford in Game 2.
The ‘Hoos and Cougars match up Tuesday night at the Fertitta Center. KenPom.com has Houston, a Final Four participant in 2021, a nine-point favorite. The ESPN Basketball Power Index gives Houston an 86.8 percent win probability.
I’m not sure it should be that pronounced. These two teams are somewhat mirror images.
Houston lost two of its top three scorers from a year ago, Quentin Grimes (17.8 ppg) and Dejon Jarreau (10.6 ppg). The leading returning guy is 6’2” point guard Marcus Sasser, who averaged 13.7 points a game last year, shooting 38.0 percent from the floor and 33.5 percent from three.
Sasser, through two games this season, is lighting it up – 25.5 points and 4.0 assists per game, 48.5 percent from the field, 44.4 percent from three.
I’d expect to see Tony Bennett use 6’3” defensive ace Reece Beekman (.556 points per possession allowed on defense) as the primary defender there.
The other scorer in double-digits is 6’4” Texas Tech transfer Kyler Edwards, who as a freshman had 12 points in 23 minutes against Virginia in the 2019 national-title game.
Edwards was a double-digit scorer as a sophomore and junior at Texas Tech, and is averaging 14.0 points per game through two in his transfer season at UH.
Look for Bennett to use 6’4” Indiana transfer Armaan Franklin (.944 points per possession on defense) to check Edwards for the bulk of the minutes out there.
Kelvin Sampson goes eight deep in his rotation, doesn’t necessarily play fast (66.8 possessions per game, 343rd nationally, per KenPom), but is very efficient on offense – 110.8 points per possession this season, 19th nationally; 118.3 points per possession a year ago, seventh nationally.
The offense features a fair number of pick-and-rolls (24.5 percent), spot-ups (19.9 percent) and post-ups and cuts (16.4 percent)
There’s efficiency on defense with Houston – .886 points per possession this season, seventh nationally; .896 points per possession a year ago, ninth nationally.
A key will be what Sampson does to check 6’6”, 246-pound Virginia forward Jayden Gardner, an East Carolina transfer who had 18 points in each of his first two games as a Cavalier.
Fabian White, a 6’8”, 230-pound senior, allowed .556 points per possession in 15.6 minutes per game last season for Houston, so he’s the guy on Gardner, who had 21 points and 13 rebounds for ECU in an 82-73 upset win over Houston on Feb. 3 of last year.
White didn’t play in that one for Houston.
Expect a slugfest. KenPom has this one a 65-56 win for the Cougs. I’d be surprised if it’s not a game in the 50s or 60s, personally.
Tip is sometime after 8 p.m. on Tuesday. The game is on ESPN.
Story by Chris Graham
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