The 2021 Texas college football season is in the books. What will 2022 hold? You had plenty of questions, so let’s get to them in the latest edition of Ask the Texpert.
(Note: Submitted questions are edited for length and clarity.)
Texas team most likely to make a Baylor-like improvement in 2022? — Trey C.
Let’s limit the candidates to those with a losing record that didn’t make a bowl, since that was Baylor’s circumstance in 2020. That leaves only four teams: Texas, TCU, Texas State and Rice.
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I don’t like the choices, but of that group — and acknowledging that I’m going to prompt some “Texas is back” jokes — it’s probably the Longhorns.
TCU is worth considering, because there’s talent there, but when I visited last month with Sonny Dykes, he called the depth “concerning.” There’s also the potential loss of running back Zach Evans, who’s in the transfer portal and was the Horned Frogs’ best offensive player. Losing Evans hinders TCU’s ability to contend in 2022.
Texas gets Bijan Robinson and Xavier Worthy back, plus some key defensive players like Keondre Coburn and DeMarvion Overshown. There was a time, around the second quarter of the Oklahoma game, when Texas looked like a legitimate Big 12 contender. We know the rest: a six-game losing streak, including a home loss to Kansas, followed.
Can Texas find a way to return to midseason form and sustain it over the course of the year? Who’s the starting quarterback? Will Hudson Card hang around after Quinn Ewers transferred in? Texas’ chances are better if Card is still in Austin, since he has experience. Ewers, a redshirt freshman transfer from Ohio State, should really be a true freshman this fall. He’s only a redshirt because he reclassified to enroll early at Ohio State and take advantage of name, image and likeness deals. As ballyhooed as Ewers is, pegging him as the program savior in 2022 seems treacherous.
And how improved will Texas’ offensive line be? It signed a ton of great linemen in December, including five-star Kelvin Banks, but starting true freshman offensive linemen in a Power 5 conference is not a winning strategy.
Furthermore, Texas’ early-season schedule is treacherous. The Longhorns get Alabama and UTSA in back-to-back weeks in September before opening conference play on the road at Texas Tech.
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The Longhorns must prove themselves for the public at large to buy in. The annual offseason hype machine has fooled us too many times to do otherwise. But Texas led three eventual top-16 teams in the second half last season and seemed to have a higher ceiling than any of the other three options here. So, however grudgingly, I’ll say Texas.
What QB rooms look the best going into next year for the teams in Texas? — Timothy S.
SMU is in a strong position with Tanner Mordecai and backup Preston Stone returning. Mordecai had a breakout season, and Stone is considered a budding young star, so the Ponies are in a really good spot.
Texas Tech is deep. Tyler Shough, who was lost for the season in Week 4 to a collarbone injury, should be back. Donovan Smith, who finished the year as the starter and showed some real flashes, and 2021 blue-chip recruit Behren Morton are still there. New offensive coordinator Zach Kittley has some nice options.
Baylor brings back the top three on its depth chart: starter Gerry Bohanon, backup Blake Shapen and youngster Kyron Drones. Bohanon started most of the year and played well, but Shapen shined in the pair of starts he had, too. Entering the second year of the same offense will help all three of them.
Texas and Texas A&M have highly talented groups that are mostly unproven. Card, Ewers and freshman Maalik Murphy all have potential, and coach Steve Sarkisian will probably choose between Card and Ewers, assuming Card stays.
A&M’s Jimbo Fisher has a little bit more experience, with former LSU starter Max Johnson transferring in. Johnson played 18 games and started all last season, throwing 27 touchdown passes. Haynes King started two games before an injury cut his 2021 short. And five-star recruit Conner Weigman arrives next week. I like A&M’s quarterback situation a little better than Texas’ right now.
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Sam, I enjoyed your article on Texas Tech coach Joey McGuire, but can you fill us in on the rest of his staff? It seems like he’s hired excellent recruiters and very good coaches, some with a lot of experience, others with limited experience but great upside. — Robert P.
The coordinator hires are impressive. Kittley oversaw the nation’s top passing offense at Western Kentucky and thrived before that at Houston Baptist, tutoring quarterback Bailey Zappe at both spots. A Texas Tech graduate whose father, Wes, is the school’s longtime track coach, Kittley brings plenty of familiarity with both Tech and West Texas. Zach is considered a rising star, and FootballScoop just named him its Quarterbacks Coach of the Year.
Tim DeRuyter, the defensive coordinator, has 35-plus years of seasoning. Though he spent the past decade on the West Coast, DeRuyter formerly coached at Texas A&M. DeRuyter, who has also been a head coach, will be a great resource for a first-time head coach like McGuire.
The rest of the staff is sprinkled with some deep Texas ties in recruiting. Receivers coach Emmett Jones, defensive line coach Zarnell Fitch and special teams coordinator Kenny Perry are all former Texas high school coaches. Marcel Yates, the secondary coach, also has recruiting experience in-state from a short stint at Texas A&M.
McGuire had a core trio of coaches who were ready to join him as soon as he got a head coaching job: Perry, Josh Bookbinder and Josh Cochran. Bookbinder, who will coach linebackers, worked with McGuire at Baylor the past two years as a defensive quality control coach. Cochran was also at Baylor during Matt Rhule’s tenure before taking a job at Austin Peay. Both are on the younger side, but their previous experience with McGuire should ease the transition.
McGuire also retained some members of former coach Matt Wells’ support staff and running backs coach DeAndre Smith. Smith has a talented group to work with in SaRodorick Thompson and Tahj Brooks, as seen in the Liberty Bowl win over Mississippi State.
James Blanchard, Tech’s player personnel director, came from Baylor and did a good job as the Bears scouting director. Cody Bellaire, who is Tech’s new scouting director, worked in the personnel departments at Baylor, Texas A&M and LSU. In McGuire’s initial weeks at Texas Tech, it was he, Blanchard and Bellaire who parsed the roster and built the recruiting board. McGuire’s staff is a strong one, especially for a first-time head coach.
Are Baylor and Dave Aranda capable of turning this season into recruiting momentum to push from their current level of 40-50ish class nationally to maybe flirting with a top 25 class year in and year out? Or is the presence of Texas and Texas A&M too oppressive for a smaller school? — Steven M., Dallas
That’s achievable. Look for the 2023 class to get a boost coming off this year’s success. The Bears closed the 2022 class well, adding four-star receiver Armani Winfield, a national top-200 recruit, holding off some late overtures from Texas heading into the early signing period. Right now, Baylor’s 2022 class is ranked 33rd in the 247Sports Composite.
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The key to improving recruiting will be staff continuity. Aranda has two strong coordinators in Jeff Grimes and Ron Roberts and some talented position coaches. Coaches around the state rave about quarterbacks coach Shawn Bell and running backs coach Justin Johnson.
The Bears lost McGuire and safeties coach and special teams coordinator Matthew Powledge to Oregon. Aranda elevated Caleb Collins from quality control to replace McGuire as outside linebackers coach and is looking for Powledge’s replacement.
But if Aranda can keep the staff largely intact and follow up the 12 wins and Sugar Bowl victory with a successful 2022, Baylor will be in good shape in the new Big 12. The staff evaluates well, Baylor has a favorable location for recruiting and will soon break ground on a new football complex and Aranda has a great reputation. Don’t expect Baylor to duke it out with SEC powers for top-10 recruiting rankings, but hitting the top 25 consistently is definitely within reach.
What do you think a reasonable expectation of SMU’s ceiling is as a program? There’s a strong desire among the alumni base to move up to the “power” (whatever that really is) conferences, and there’s certainly the financial wherewithal to do it. But between the relatively small undergrad student body, the lost two decades and just general old-fashioned politics, it seems unlikely.
So then what? — Matt M.
Barring a move to a power conference, SMU’s ceiling is probably the top program in the Group of 5. The program’s success under Dykes, with the Mustangs reaching the Top 25 each of the last three seasons, shows it’s possible. They were a regular contender for a New Year’s Six bowl berth, and that’s the goal for teams outside of the Power 5.
SMU proved willing to spend on coaches and infrastructure, and its location in a prime recruiting footprint and one of the nation’s largest cities will always make it an attractive job. If new coach Rhett Lashlee can build upon the Ponies’ recruiting success in their own area, SMU could enjoy sustained success.
In this scenario, the program’s best hope is that the Group of 5 gets a seat at the table in College Football Playoff expansion, whenever it happens. I believe it will. Success for schools like Cincinnati, UCF and Coastal Carolina in recent years emboldened the calls for expansion and G5 inclusion, and I can’t see it getting out of an eight- or 12-team playoff.
It may not be what SMU fans dreamed of, but it’s not a bad life. Incoming Big 12 members Cincinnati, UCF and Houston did well for themselves as top G5 contenders. If SMU wins the American Athletic Conference on a regular basis, which it will be well-positioned to do in the league’s next iteration, it will likely get some cracks at a 12-team playoff.
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What’s the athletic department situation in San Marcos? Texas State still has not been bowling since joining FBS. Meanwhile, UTSA appears to be building something special. Why does Larry Teis still have a job as AD? — Will H.
Teis is no longer Texas State’s athletic director. He stepped down on Aug. 31, citing a worsening back problem, and Don Coryell, who has been at the school for 17 years, has been in charge since.
I spoke to someone in the department a few weeks ago and basically asked what you did. Why is it that Texas State hasn’t been more competitive when a program like UTSA, which operates in a similar budget stratosphere, has?
Alignment, investment and commitment has been better at UTSA than Texas State. The Roadrunners last year opened a pristine $40 million athletic complex and gave coach Jeff Traylor a monumental raise to keep him at the school. Even when Traylor’s salary compared to Jake Spavital’s, Traylor’s incentives package was much better.
Since Coryell took over, I’m told there’s been a genuine effort from Texas State to step up. It’ll take time, and Coryell even said in a ]November statement about Spavital’s performance that, “we are making further investments in our football program, including enhancing our operations and recruiting budgets, and working toward implementing full cost of attendance for our student-athletes as allowed by NCAA rules.”
While Texas State’s budget is generally competitive with the rest of the Sun Belt, the majority of the league’s other schools have made larger spending increases in the past five years. Texas State is one of only two programs in the conference to have an increase of less than 14 percent of its spending from 2015-2020. The Bobcats’ spending increased only four percent in that span, according to the Knight Foundation.
By comparison, Coastal Carolina (68 percent), Louisiana (57 percent) and Georgia Southern (44 percent) have all made larger financial strides. Even UTSA increased its athletics spending 14 percent in that window, and that stands to increase even more with its pending move to the AAC.
Not to be overlooked, UTSA has had more success with its football hires. While the Bobcats went 7-29 in Everett Withers’ three seasons and are 9-27 so far under Spavital, Larry Coker did a solid job launching UTSA football, Frank Wilson led it twice to bowl eligibility and Traylor just finished a historic 12-2 season.
(Photo of Haynes King: Maria Lysaker / USA Today)
