National signing day (part two) is in the rearview mirror and 2023 recruiting is in full swing. Spring football is fast approaching.
There’s plenty to discuss around Texas college football, so let’s get to your questions in the latest edition of Ask the Texpert.
Note: Questions lightly edited for length and clarity.
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As a non-Texas resident I’m curious for your opinion on this: How much of Texas A&M’s now sustained recruiting elevation/dominance is due to the fact that they are the only SEC team in the state of Texas? Do we think this type of recruiting success would’ve happened to ANY Texas school in the same position (i.e. if the SEC had only added Texas State, UTEP, Rice, Houston or Texas Tech, is it fair to assume any of these schools would’ve pulled in top-10 classes by now as well if they were the only SEC program in Texas)? — Drew V., Charlotte, N.C.
SEC membership unquestionably helped Texas A&M’s recruiting success in the last decade, both in the Kevin Sumlin era and in the current regime under Jimbo Fisher. If you’re from Houston, Dallas-Fort Worth, East Texas, etc., and want to play in the SEC — the league that annually produces the most NFL Draft picks — while staying close to home, there’s only one place you can do it: Texas A&M. That will change, obviously, when Texas and Oklahoma enter the league. But both A&M staffs have capitalized on that exclusivity since the Aggies joined the conference. It’s important to note that it wasn’t a silver bullet; Alabama and LSU still get their fair share of Texas blue-chippers, but it has been a key part of the Aggies’ pitch and there’s no denying it helped them big time.
I don’t believe any Texas program could recruit at A&M’s level, even with SEC membership, for several reasons. The Group of 5 programs are in another universe financially, which creates an uphill battle that’s hard to overcome. Also, I wonder how much of a beating those programs would take in their initial years in the conference as it would be years before they were SEC-ready, if ever. A&M had the good fortune of having multiple first-round picks on offense when it entered the conference, including a once-in-a-generation quarterback, Johnny Manziel. That bought A&M some time before it built a defense that was good enough for the league.
The buzz A&M generated off that 11-2 debut SEC season, Manziel’s Heisman Trophy and the team’s early success under Sumlin did so much for how the Aggies were perceived nationally. That reputational boost translated to the recruiting space, and three successive top-11 classes followed. The on-field success led to skyrocketing donations, which enabled A&M to upgrade to best-in-class facilities. That financial windfall also helped make the Fisher hire, with a record-setting contract at the time, possible. That’s a challenging formula to duplicate.
Texas is the only other in-state school similarly situated financially, and it already pulls in top-10 classes consistently. I’m sure joining the SEC will help its recruiting even further. Baylor proved itself willing to spend, as has TCU. Texas Tech is starting to do so. But they’d still have to make a big jump to reach Texas and Texas A&M’s level financially, and none of those programs have recruited at even a top-20 level consistently (Baylor’s highest recruiting ranking in the last decade is 25th, TCU’s is 21st and Tech’s is 28th). Could those programs pull in some top-10 or top-15 classes here or there after being dropped into the SEC? Perhaps. But doing it consistently? That’s difficult.
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In addition to the financial commitment and institutional want-to that a place like A&M has, you also need maniacal recruiters on your staff, starting with the head coach. Going toe-to-toe with Nick Saban and Kirby Smart every year is not for the meek. Fisher relishes that challenge, but not everyone does. Notching top-10 classes means getting some five-star recruits and several high-level four-stars. It takes a lot of sustained effort to break through and win battles for that caliber of prospect. Heck, it took almost a decade in the league before A&M, with all its resources, recruited at a truly elite level consistently.
Of the schools beyond Texas and Texas A&M, the school that strikes me as the most likely to achieve success in your stated scenario is Baylor. The Bears have had plenty of on-field success (six double-digit win seasons since 2011) and a head coach with SEC experience, former LSU defensive coordinator Dave Aranda. They’re also off to a great start in this 2023 class (it’s early, but Baylor’s class is fifth nationally and first in the Big 12). Athletics and school leadership seem to be aligned, and Baylor has been successful despite multiple head coaching changes. Plus, the recruiting footprint is solid; the school is centrally located in Texas and not far from any of the state’s recruiting hotbeds.
But what A&M has achieved recruiting-wise was something few predicted and seems hard to replicate.
Here’s my question regarding Quinn Ewers: Usually when you have a highly advertised star coming in as a freshman there’s usually a lot of fanfare from coaches, players, even media, talking them up. Last season there was absolutely nothing being mentioned about him. It was also like he wasn’t even on Ohio State’s roster. What do we really know about Ewers and his progression at Ohio State? — Mike
Anyone who expected Ewers to arrive in Columbus, Ohio, and immediately generate on-field buzz given the hasty circumstances of his arrival fooled themselves. Yes, he’s considered a once-in-a-generation prospect, but the reality is, if the name, image and likeness revolution hadn’t kicked off last July, he probably would have finished out his senior season at Southlake Carroll High rather than enrolling early at Ohio State. He reclassified into the 2021 class primarily to cash in on lucrative NIL deals as a college athlete, since Texas state law currently bars high school athletes from doing so.
The fanfare you reference is usually because said freshman has at least some chance of competing for a starting job or significant playing time. That’s usually preceded by arriving on campus in January or June and going through team workouts. Ewers arrived in the middle of August training camp, meaning he was way behind Ohio State’s other 2021 freshmen, who had either gone through spring practice or summer strength and conditioning. And I don’t care how good of a prospect you are, the adjustment from high school to college is tough on most teenagers, particularly if you’re far from home. Given all that, it was unrealistic to think he would come in and make some type of impact in 2021, especially with two top-50 national recruits already ahead of him on the depth chart (C.J. Stroud and Kyle McCord). I doubt Ohio State coach Ryan Day gave a bunch of meaningful reps to Ewers during the season.
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So the answer to your question is, we don’t know much, but that shouldn’t be cause for concern. It was an unprecedented situation. Steve Sarkisian said Ewers is acclimating himself well to Texas and once the Longhorns start spring practice, I’m sure there will be plenty of tidbits trickling out of the Forty Acres about his progress.
What are your thoughts on the future of the QB position in Houston after Clayton Tune’s final season in 2022? — John F.
Tune’s successor is probably not on the roster right now. The last two quarterback signees (Maddox Kopp and Sofian Massoud) transferred, the backup (walk-on Ike Ogbogu) is entering his senior season and the No. 3 QB (junior-to-be Holman Edwards) was behind Ogbogu on the depth chart last season. And the Cougars don’t have an incoming freshman because they haven’t signed a 2022 quarterback recruit.
The Cougars’ future starter will likely come from the transfer portal. Dana Holgorsen would have taken a transfer last year but struggled to find one that he deemed good enough to start because Tune was firmly entrenched as QB1 with two years of eligibility left. Quarterbacks who transfer want to play quickly so it’s hard to convince a guy to sit two years after he arrives.
Now that Tune has just one year left, Houston has a better chance of attracting the caliber of passer Holgorsen seeks. The Cougars offered former Incarnate Word quarterback Cameron Ward before he transferred to Washington State, and former Texas quarterback Casey Thompson counted the Cougars among the two dozen schools he considered before landing at Nebraska. Ideally, UH would like a quarterback of that caliber.
The transfer market usually heats up after spring practices end and players discover where they are on the depth chart. If the right type of guy hits the portal, the Cougars could make a run for a quarterback then. The sooner, the better for Houston, because the more time the newcomer has to practice with the team and learn the offense, the better off he’ll be going into 2023.
What are reasonable recruiting expectations for Texas Tech right now? — Daylan A.
Let’s start by acknowledging the tear Joey McGuire and his staff are on right now. At the moment you read this, the Red Raiders are sixth (!!) in the 2023 national recruiting rankings (per the 247Sports Composite) and second in the Big 12 behind Baylor. Eight of their 13 commitments pledged in the last three weeks alone, including three since Sunday, headlined by four-star safety Brenden Jordan. Texas Tech’s class already has three four-star players and seven total ranked in the top 500 nationally. That’s a hell of a start.
Do I think they’ll end the cycle as a top-10 class? No. But a top-25 or top-30 class is absolutely within the realm of possibility here when the dust settles, and that would be a great start for this new staff. For context, in the modern recruiting era, the highest ranking a Texas Tech recruiting class has finished is 19th (the 2011 class). But in the post-Mike Leach era, Texas Tech has finished in the top 40 only four times, with the latest instance coming in the 2015 class (32nd). Even in the Leach era, the highest-ranked class since 2002 was 25th, in 2006. So historically, that appears to be the Red Raiders’ ceiling.
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Could McGuire and Co. bust through that ceiling? That’s asking a lot. Texas and Oklahoma usually bring in the conference’s top recruiting classes, and Baylor, which is coming off a Big 12 championship, is doing just as well on the trail right now as Texas Tech. I’m not one to bet against McGuire; he put a hell of a staff together with some really deep Texas ties with guys like Emmett Jones, Zarnell Fitch and Kenny Perry. Part of it will depend on how the Red Raiders perform on the field this fall. But if they finish with a top-30 class that’s in the top half of the Big 12, I think Tech fans can consider that a win. That’s something they haven’t done in the last seven cycles.
Despite a budget that exceeds most of their Conference USA peers, Seth Littrell has failed to turn the Mean Green into a perennial conference championship contender. What would you identify as the top 2-3 reasons things have been just average in Denton, Texas? — Jonathan D.
Coaching staff instability has been one of the biggest culprits. The Mean Green had a relatively stable staff early in the Littrell era that led to back-to-back nine-win seasons in 2017 and 2018, Littrell’s best stretch in Denton. But offensive coordinator Graham Harrell’s departure for USC after the 2018 season kicked off a lot of turnover. In 2019, Littrell hired Bodie Reeder to succeed Harrell but fired him after just one season. Then Littrell made Mike Bloesch and Tommy Mainord co-coordinators, but Littrell still called the plays. Last season, Bloesch became the play-caller and the primary offensive coordinator.
Phil Bennett last season was North Texas’ fourth defensive coordinator in the Littrell era. After firing Troy Reffett following the 2019 season, he turned to Clint Bowen in 2020, then parted ways with Bowen after that season for Bennett. That type of annual turnover at the coordinator level is tough to endure for players. Fortunately for UNT, it looks like Bloesch and Bennett will be back in their roles in 2022, though Bloesch is now also adding quarterbacks coach to his duties (which is normal for most OCs). That continuity should help the Mean Green in 2022. Last summer, Littrell said he finally felt like he was comfortable with his staff and that the chemistry was “awesome.”
Another reason for the team’s struggles is that North Texas spent a lot of Littrell’s first five seasons playing catchup depth-wise. Littrell said that when he arrived before the 2016 season, North Texas had just 67 scholarship players. They didn’t reach 85 until the 2021 season after the pandemic-induced NCAA eligibility freeze enabled super seniors to return and get them back to the full allotment.
The annual 25-signee hard cap made it tough for teams that fell behind to get back to 85. By comparison, UTSA — the Conference USA champion — entered last season with more than 90 scholarship players (teams were allowed to be over the 85-scholarship limit in 2021 but must return to 85 in 2022). And now that the NCAA has given teams flexibility on the annual 25-signee cap, it will be easier for teams to reload their roster if they lose a lot of players to the transfer portal.
(Photo: Bob Levey / Getty Images)
