Moderate Democrat Henry Cuellar has spent some $2 million battling progressive candidate Jessica Cisneros for the right to retain his District 28 seat.
Rice University political scientist says the 28-year-old immigration attorney has matched him dollar for dollar.
The 62-year-old Cuellar has represented the sprawling South Texas district, which runs from just north of the Rio Grande Valley to San Antonio, since 2005.
Cisneros came within 3.6% of unseating him two years ago. This election cycle Democratic party heavyweights Senator Elizabeth Warren and congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez have campaigned with Cisneros.
Jones says this race is a big deal because it represents a battle between the two wings of the Democratic party. "It's also important because if Cuellar loses and Cisneros is the Democratic nominee, then it becomes possible for Republicans to potentially flip the seat in November." And he says that could play a role in determining which party control the US house in 2023.
Jones notes that just like within the Republican party there's often a purity test, increasingly in the Democratic party there is one as well. "Progressives would rather have a one in two chance of electing a progressive than a 95% chance of electing a centrist Democrat."
Jones also says Cuellar fits the profile of the median voter in the district. He says Cuellar routinely out performs the average Democratic in Texas by ten percentage points, and he out performed President Biden in the district by 16 points.
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