The 2020 Census revealed a continued population shift from blue states to red states, with places like Texas and Florida gaining population while California and New York lost residents. That trend is even starker in major cities. According to Census data, many of America's largest urban areas---New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, San Francisco, and Washington, D.C.---all lost population between 2020 and 2021. At the same time, Houston, Dallas, Austin, Phoenix and Tampa all saw population gains.
The COVID pandemic, rising crime and the shifting job market are all factors in these migration trends, but Stephen Klineberg with Rice University's Kinder Institute believes affordability---particularly the price of housing---is the biggest reason. "The people who are leaving these cities are not upper middle class, highly educated professionals," he says. "They are working class folks, who are finding that the cost of housing has just skyrocketed."
Texas has so far benefited from the blue-state, blue-city exodus. But Klineberg warns affordability could become an issue here, too. "The cost of housing for people who want to live in California or New York has gone up dramatically," he tells KTRH. "But it's also going up dramatically in Houston, Dallas, and especially Austin."
"In the next ten years, we might see fewer people moving to Texas and more people moving to places like Kentucky or (rural areas), in places where they can find housing they can afford," he continues.
Another factor in the ongoing population shift is the rise of remote work and telecommuting during the pandemic, which has resulted in fewer people being tied to a certain location by their job. "There is going to be more flexibility and more opportunity for people to live in places that are further out, with a higher quality of life---think Colorado and the mountains---and less need to live close to the inner cities," says Klineberg.