Riding the Wave: GOP Predicts Big Gains This Fall

With inflation soaring, the stock market sagging, the housing market cooling, violent crime rising in cities across the U.S, and President Biden's approval ratings cratering, it's no surprise Republicans foresee a landslide in this fall's midterm elections. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who helped engineer the 1994 Republican wave election, told Fox News last weekend he thinks the GOP could gain as many as 70 seats in the House this year. That would be the most seats gained by either party since at least 1948. The 1994 Gingrich wave saw Republicans add 54 seats, while the 2010 Tea Party wave gained 63 seats for the GOP.

Not everyone is quite as bullish as Gingrich on predictions for this fall. "One fact we know is going to occur is that Republicans are going to flip the House and take control moving into 2023," says Mark Jones, Rice University political science professor. "However, uncertainty remains over what kind of majority they will ultimately have."

Jones predicts the GOP pick-up in the House will more likely be in the range of 20-50 seats. The Senate is a little trickier. "I'd say the Senate, with its 50-50 tie, is up in the air," says Jones. "Right now, Republicans have the best hope of taking control, primarily by flipping seats in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada."

"But Republicans are also defending (Senate) seats in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and North Carolina."

As it stands, Republicans only need to flip five seats to take the House, and one seat to take the Senate. Ultimately, Jones believes this midterm election will essentially be a referendum on the president. "The one factor that will influence races across the country for both the House and Senate will be Joe Biden's approval rating," he tells KTRH. "The higher it is as we get toward November, the better things will be for Democrats. The lower it is, the worse things will be for Democrats and, thus, better for Republicans."

Photo: AFP


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